Global Armed Conflict: 2023 Rundown [Brief!]
Global Armed Conflict: 2023 Rundown [Brief!]
A Compact look ahead to 2024 & beyond [Abridged Version!]
Epic Battle, oil painting: Symbolic representation of global conflict, intense strokes, muted tones, portraying the scale and gravity of war.
Prolegomena: The Most Wonderful Sir Frank Wright ('reviewer of reality' extraordinaire himself) was gracious enough to let this friendly neighbourhood DOOM-merchant present some 'humble wares' for inspection to his lovely audience!
As with all of the DOOM that I smelt at my Furnace, I hold absolutely nothing back, & shall hit you, Dear Readers, with the pinnacle of DOOM, gloom & despair.
What follows is the 'Brief' on my Global Conflict Series. In it, I look to the trends & patterns in 2023 & project into 2024 what I see unfolding.
This is the Abridged version, where I analyze & 'scope out' the critical points of focus & present to you, Dear Readers:
The 'Big Enchilada' of 2024: War in West Asia?
The 'Watchlist Three': Ukraine, Taiwan & The DPRK
Concluding Remarks & Observations
I will also link the Full 3-part series for those who are patient & 'DOOM-ful' enough to consume 'even more DOOM:'
May you all have a Displeasing, 'DOOM-ful' read!
Despair! & Remember, Dear Readers, The DOOM cometh!
The 'Big Enchilada' of 2024: War in West Asia?
‘Israel’-Palestine: A Regional War in all but name!
Palestinians wave their national flag and celebrate by a damaged Israeli tank at the Gaza Strip fence, east of Khan Younis, on Saturday, October 7, 2023 [Yousef Masoud/AP]
What began as a ground offensive into Gazah to eliminate Hamas & its JOR allies has turned into a Regional Conflict. The 'Israelis' & their American allies have yet to admit to this, but all the signs presently indicate said reality:
Iraq's Hashd ash-Shabi are firing Rockets, Mortars, Drones, & Artillery Fire daily on US military bases & assets in Iraq & elsewhere. It is only a matter of time till these places are stormed en masse by said militias.
Once that happens, US Forces will be surrounded on all sides & slaughtered en masse. The reason is simple: there are far too many cheap, easy-to-assemble munitions in the hands of militiamen:
Interceptors are expensive (to procure & use), & only a handful of them are present in the region's roughly 2 dozen American assets.
Hundreds of thousands of militiamen can utilize tens of thousands of smaller munitions, such as FPV drones, ATGMs, etc., to thoroughly saturate & overwhelm the 'technologically more savvy' US forces in days & weeks once full hostilities commence.
The Syrian Arab Army continues shelling the Golan Heights with increased ferocity daily, & the disposition of forces near the 'Israeli' border is beginning to change rapidly to a more offensive posture. Even here, we may see Mass Escalation.
Lebanon's Hezbollah is using ATGMs, Drones, Rockets, etc., daily on Israeli military sites in the North. The 'tit for tat' escalation phase is over & infiltration, skirmishes, etc., are increasing.
A 'ground offensive' is all but guaranteed in the coming weeks &/or months from the 'Israeli' side. This is because 'Israel' needs to restore deterrence, calm, security, etc., to the North so that its settlers can return back to economic life & continue to do so.
Yemen's Ansarallah, meanwhile, continues their de facto blockade of the Red Sea by harassing Shippers & Cargo transiting through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.
In recent days, this has escalated further to hitting not just 'Israeli'-linked shippers but likewise US & UK shippers as well.
The Americans have responded with airstrikes on depots, assets, etc., belonging to Ansarallah in Northern Yemen. The issue, of course, is that (1) Most of these were emptied out long ago, & (2) Yemen is a highly decentralized state:
8+ Years of bombing by the Saudis & their allies have not brought the nation to its knees. Ansarallah, instead, developed & improved on their long-range capabilities during said war.
The Americans (with a far lower forces posture & ability to deliver ordinance) will not fare any better, thus.
Experts say Iran's new Emad surface-to-surface missile is more reliable than its predecessors such as these Shahab-2 long-range ballistic missiles
Iran has likewise taken the gloves off. It has now begun striking 'Jihadist' terror cells & related proxy forces that the 'Israelis' & Americans have traditionally used to conduct mass terror attacks against Iran & the wider Axis of Resistance groups in West Asia.
Essentially, this is a show of force meant to act as a warning to Anglo-Zionist tinkering in the neighbourhood:
Should further steps be taken by the 'Israelis' or the Americans to widen the War in Palestine, Iran has now put its foot down & made it clear, namely, that 'We can strike you & strike you should you choose this path!'
Finally, The JOR, which comprises all of the various Resistance groups (including Hamas) in the Gazah Strip, has successfully attritioned large swathes of 'Israeli' armour, engineering equipment, etc.:
Military Censors make it challenging to get exact figures. However, only around 3 divisions remain based on preliminary estimates regarding what the 'Israelis' are calling 'withdrawals for temporary rotation & refitting' purposes.
Caught lying before regarding casualty figures, most of the Global South is not 'buying what the Israelis are selling.' Since the ground invasion began in the final week of October 2023, casualty figures are likely much higher than admitted:
'The facts on the ground' speak for themselves.
'Israel' has made large withdrawals from the Strip without succeeding in any of their maximalist objectives (i.e., rescuing all the hostages, 'wiping out Hamas,' etc.). This alone is an embarrassing failure.
As the war inevitably escalates into a Regional Conflagration, these failures by the 'Israeli military' will further galvanize the various Resistance Forces & Actors to attack them from all sides.
The 'Nuclear deterrent' will not stop these actors from low-level 'brushfire' style tactics, which continue to overstretch the various minutia of state, military, etc., apparatus. The 'Israelis,' therefore, have a choice to make:
They can look for a decisive outcome & attack Hezbollah & others to get said outcome, or they can continue 'bleeding out' (via emigration, financial woes, infrastructure damage, etc.) like present, except in an accelerated fashion.
Netanyahu's military planners & related staff seem determined to pursue the former option. If so, we may see in 2024 the complete unravelling of wider 'Israeli' society, & the broader ripple effects of said Geopolitical Earthquake in West Asia.
The 'Watchlist Three': Ukraine, Taiwan & The DPRK
Ukraine: Death of a Nation, & The Demise of a World Order
A rescue worker stands next to a residential building partially destroyed as a result of a missile attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine [Sergey Bobok/AFP]
'Project Ukraine' wound down considerably in 2023. With the failure of the Summer-Fall counter-offensive, it has become clear for even the staunchest Neo-conservatives where the trendline is headed:
Namely, a decisive victory for the Russians. Panic has thus set in at the various capitals of Western Europe, all dreading the coming Russian offensive, likely sometime later this year.
Washington is trying desperately to funnel an additional package worth 60+ billion USD (of weaponry, aid, supplies, etc.). However, this won't do much since fighting-age males are in very short supply in Ukraine:
A significant chunk of men (aged 18-29) have already been either killed outright or wounded. Most of the reserves (i.e., older men & men less primed to fight) have likewise suffered similar grim fates.
Ukraine's issue is no longer about mere material & supplies but about manpower:
Disaster will strike if American backing (financial, military, etc.) 'dry up' this year. With 2024 being a contentious election year that will make 1968 'look like a picnic,' this is now set in stone. Thus, it is highly likely that before November, the 'tap runs dry!'
Congress is already making it impossible for the collective 'Biden' to secure said aid package without significant (some say even politically suicidal) concessions. Any such further delays will make the plight of the Ukrainians even more dire.
2024, therefore, might be the year we see 'Project Ukraine' collapse entirely, & the statehood of Ukraine dissolved once & for all via summary partitioning & annexing of the nation by the Russians. The Poles, Hungarians & Romans may likewise take part.
If so, we may see the post-Cold War framework for Collective Security (i.e., NATO & friends) collapse decisively, along with American Unipolarity.
Taiwan: The next Flashpoint for Great Power Conflict?
Armed vehicles and Taiwan military soldiers attend the annual Han Guang anti-landing drill in New Taipei City on July 27, 2023. (Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images)
As the Taiwanese people come to terms with the DPP's victory in the January elections, 'Cross-Strait relations' are at an all-time low:
In his New Year's address to the Chinese, President Xi Jinping was rather blunt & stated that Taiwan's reunification is a 'historical inevitability' that cannot be stopped.
In other words, the Chinese leadership is resolved to, once & for all, bring an end to Taiwanese 'separatism.'
In the New Year, this translated to manoeuvres by warships & warplanes near the island on Wednesday, January 17, 2024.
American military planners have long predicted a 'showdown' with the Chinese over the island sometime later this decade.
Traditionally, said planners have forecast some form of military operation circa 2025-27, with April &/or October being the likeliest candidate months for invasion:
The straits are calmest in said months, meaning amphibious operations have the highest likelihood of success during these times. This calculation, however, makes a fundamental assumption:
Namely, that amphibious landings will be the prime vector of attack.
But what Yemen's Ansarallah has taught us is that 'naval units' need not be utilized to enforce a de facto blockade.
Instead, all one needs are Drones, ASBMs, etc., whose main objective will be to Harass & Damage Shippers, Cargo, etc., 'just enough' to get Insurance rates to spike.
This will rapidly cascade into Shippers being unable to secure any insurance & emptying the waterways. If so, Taiwan would be under a de facto blockade, slowly being starved to submission.
Should tensions escalate into full-blown war, we may see the usage of such tactics in mid to late 2024. At that point, the USN will have to make a decision:
Does it try & lift the blockade, or does it not?
So far, failure to do so against Yemen signals the latter pursuit.
The DPRK: A Frozen Conflict rapidly Thawing Off!
This undated picture released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Dec.19, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter watching the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile ICBM at an undisclosed location in North Korea.
Korean Central News Agency via KNS/AFP via Getty Image
Chairman Kim Jong Un has recently ended decades-long pursuits toward Korean Reunification.
Be it shutting down organizations dealing with said objective or amending DPRK's constitution to designate South Korea as 'The principal enemy,' North Korea is eschewing diplomacy:
Analysts specializing in the region have noted with alarm recent 'battlefield developments,' such as significant forces being once more deployed to the DMZ & the suspension of a 2019 deal that sought to lower military tensions.
Tensions have already spilled over Kinetically, with the DPRK shelling the South's Yeonpyeong Island, & the South Koreans retaliating. The outbreak of fullscale Hostilities may become a reality as we get further into the year:
The DPRK has already developed its Missile capabilities far beyond its Southern foe. Any use of SRBMs & IRBMs by the former would mean complete devastation of the latter. Even if Nuclear-armed devices were not used in an opening salvo, South Korea can do little:
It uses American interceptors & related systems, which have, over the years, proven too expensive & unreliable, especially when pitted against small, cheap projectiles used in a 'swarm-like' fashion.
If FPV Drones, Rocket Artillery, etc., are fired toward Seoul & other major Metropolitan areas, casualties (from strictly conventional weaponry) would easily surpass tens of thousands in the opening hours of Hostilities.
This is the 'military reality' that the ROK leadership faces:
Its vaunted 'American technology' was long ago falsified in West Asia by numerous sub-state actors who, over the years, have perfected the Art & Science of cheap, 'commodified' weaponry that can be used & reused with little effort.
Therefore, as war looms, the ROK will enter it with technology, doctrine, training, methodologies, etc., basically 'debunked' by 'military facts on the ground.'
2024, thus, may pose an existential risk to the nation of 50+ million.
Concluding Remarks & Observations
Explosive Impact, digital art: Imagined scene of a nuclear bomb detonation, fiery explosion, ominous colors, capturing the devastating power.
2024 will be a year like none other. As Unipolarity rapidly fades & Great Power Conflict becomes more commonplace, the Multipolar world order is being born in Blood, Slaughter & DOOM.
While it is possible that some of the predictions & analyses made here don't 'pan out' for various reasons, it should be pretty clear by now, Dear Readers, that we are in a 'Brave New World:'
'Pax Americana' is dead. What replaces it is still 'up in the air.' Until that is resolved decisively, many rivers of blood will continue to be shed.
Essentially, then, The DOOM cometh!
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Christ; you are a bundle of joy !!. LOL.
I would however add the Sahal region in Africa as well = https://www.un.org/africarenewal/sahel
Good stuff though, thanks.
Yes, doom for the status quo, but increasing opportunities for new players and power centres. As the Chinese would say - the US has lost the mandate of heaven.