Global Armed Conflict: 2023 Rundown [Part III]

Minor conflicts (100 to 999 deaths); A Compact look ahead to 2024 & beyond

Jan 16, 2024

In Part III, we will move away from the currently extant Wars & look to Minor Conflicts. These conflicts have not immensely escalated to the point of becoming full-fledged wars. These are also those conflicts that have De-escalated considerably & are on the verge of devolving down to becoming Skirmishes in the near future, should Peace prevail.

Lebanon: Hezbollah-Israel War now all but inevitable!

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah addresses his supporters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon on January 3, 2024. © Mohamed Azakir, Reuters

War in West Asia is beginning to Converge into a broader regional conflagration from multiple fronts. Previously, we have looked at the Palestinian, Yemeni, Syrian & Iraqi fronts & the tit-for-tat escalations in each of said respective theatres.

In Southern Lebanon, Hezbollah likewise shows signs of escalating the conflict against the 'Israelis.' Tit-for-tat Escalation on the border has escalated to the point where over 200,000 settlers are now Internally displaced in the state:

This spells disaster for the Netanyahu government. The economy, wider society, etc., are teetering & cannot be salvaged so long as Hezbollah's firing of Drones, Artillery, Missiles, & Rocketry continues since none of the settlers would be willing to return.

Skirmishes in the North, therefore, will all but escalate to a full-fledged Kinetic War given these 'facts on the ground.' There have already been breaches on the Northern border following the assassination of crucial Hezbollah leaders around a week ago.

American 'diplomats' are currently running circles around West Asia trying to prevent this outcome. So far, they have fallen upon deaf ears.

Leaked cables from the 'Biden' administration are cautioning 'Israeli' leadership, many openly declaring 'any war with Hezbollah will end in a Strategic defeat for the Israelis.'

However, the Zionists likely have no choice left other than further Escalation. The war has already cost the economy over 50 billion USD (this, before counting the effects of the Yemeni blockade.) Without a decisive outcome, the state will Bleed out.

The operation in the Gazah strip is already an abject failure. As more divisions are withdrawn, the overall morale in wider 'Israeli' society is collapsing.

Protests grip major cities nationwide daily, & there is no confidence that 'normal life' will return anytime soon. Demands are growing for Action.

The Kahenists in government are likewise itching for a fight. The Demographic situation is already lost, as the 7 million or so 'Israelis' have been surpassed by the 8 million Palestinians (2.5 million within 'Israel' & 5.5 million in Palestinian territories.)

They are aware that this is their 'last chance.' So far, the attempt to dislodge Hamas (and the wider JOR) has all but failed. Being a guerrilla movement, this means an outright victory for the latter.

Therefore, the 'Israeli' government looks northward instead:

If some form of decisive outcome can be garnered there, then 'normalcy' of some form can still be salvaged. It would not stop the mass waves of emigration nor the inevitable bilateral sanctions from neighbouring states, but it would 'buy time.'

& so the inexorable march to war continues. Nobody in the government appears to know of any viable alternatives, & everyone seems to have made peace with the fact that 'Israeli' society can't do better than pursue said suicidal plan.

Hezbollah has made it clear (per Nasrallah's recent speeches) that 'no restraint shall exist between us & you if you choose to escalate this into a full-fledged war.'

It appears that the 'Israeli' government & wider society have decided that this suicidal charge is their most 'optimal pursuit.'

Armenia-Azerbaijan - The End of Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijani soldiers at a military training and deployment center amid the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, near the city of Ganja, Azerbaijan, Oct. 23, 2020. (Reuters Photo)

2024 began with the formal end of a political entity, namely the unrecognized state of Artsakh. Its administered primarily majority Armenian region of Nagorno-Karabakh was defeated soundly on September 19-20 of last year in a mass Azerbaijani offensive.

What followed after the ceasefire was the Azerbaijani military assuming complete de facto control of the region, resulting in wave upon wave of Armenians leaving en masse.

This forced displacement & ethnic cleansing is ongoing today, with many fearing that future genocide of the Armenians there is all but guaranteed given the scale & scope of the flight thus far:

Over 100,000 Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians have left thus far, with less than 50,000 or so remaining in the region. Artsakh has ceased to exist in entirety, for all intents & purposes.

International response to the plight of Artsakh & the Armenians has been severely muted. Very little has been done to safeguard their rights, & Azerbaijan is all but poised to incorporate the rebellious territory while trampling on said rights.

Clashes are still ongoing but are primarily of an intermittent, guerrilla nature. When the Artsakh government formally dissolved on January 1, 2024, all state organs (including the military forces) were likewise dissolved.

This year, the likely outcome will be the Azerbaijan leadership seeking legitimacy for its continued forced displacement & ethnic cleansing campaign in the region. With Turkey & others backing them unconditionally thus far, they will likely succeed.

Russia, the strongest ally of Armenia in the region, may still object to the plight of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, thereby staving off Azerbaijan. However, until there is a decisive outcome against Ukraine, Russia's hands are tied.

Iran, the other regional player, & Armenia's close ally, may also object. However, they might also be too busy with other conflicts this year.

Kurdistan - Separatism & Conflicts Galore!

Iraq's Kurdistan region maintains its own peshmerga armed forces [Getty]

The Kurdistan is in a tricky spot. Due to the Israel-Palestine War, ethnic Kurds living in Kurdistan (i.e. be they in Iraq, Syria, Turkey or Iran) are now being expected by the wider region to pitch in & make a United Front against the plight of the Palestinians.

This, however, has yet to happen. Kurdish militias continue gunning down Turkish, Syrian, Iraqi, etc., soldiers whenever possible in defence of their various 'autonomous regions' in West Asia. US forces have, likewise, continued assisting them.

Skirmishes in the region have not escalated in the course of 'Israeli' aggression, so it seems that the Kurds are not taking advantage of the divided attention of their many foes. However, should they choose to do so, the opportunity is now open:

Be it Syria, Iraq or even Turkey, none will be paying the Kurds much heed should they try & nip some more land into their buffer zones, thereby expanding their 'autonomous regions.' Such an opportunity rarely comes!

CENTCOM is likely well aware of this fact. If so, they can be expected to assist the Kurds in said ventures, should they decide to pursue it. The Americans will likewise try to persuade them to take Military Action, using various persuasive techniques.

If American designs in West Asia involve a Wider War, the Kurds will have to play a vital role as 'boots on the ground.' & so, steps will likely be taken to 'pre-empt' them to take a more offensive posture. Should this happen, expect the region to blow up.

Any such tinkering by CENTCOM for a widespread 'Kurdish rebellion' would forcibly end the Sykes-Picot order of West Asia overnight.

If the Americans are genuinely that Insane & wish for Chaos of that magnitude, one can expect it to happen very soon, in mere months.

Iran - Baluchistan, ‘Islamism’ & other Internal Woes

People light candles at the scene of an explosion in the city of Kerman, Iran, that killed almost 100 people at a ceremony comemorating the anniversary of Qassem Suleimani’s death. (Photo by Mahdi/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images)

Iran is a nation in Mourning. The recent bombing at Kerman, which murdered some 100 of its citizenry, has both angered & grief-stricken the nation of 88+ million. The attack itself, carried out by ISIS (hint: A CIA outfit), has now made it clear to Iranians:

This Regional War against the Americans is now coming homeward. The attacks on Yemen's Ansarallah, as well as the activation of various CIA outfits to asymmetrically begin nipping away at Iran itself, means that the time has finally come.

Vectors of Attack will be numerous. Separatists in various parts of the nation (Baluchistan especially) are beginning to show renewed signs of vigour.

This may indicate a renewed effort by CENTCOM & other Western outfits (military & intelligence) to penetrate Iran:

In the past, some limited successes were garnered after said outfits successfully instigated nationwide protests in the Islamic Republic upon the unfortunate demise of a young woman (primarily from medical complications.)

Today, however, the stakes are much higher. Any widespread internal conflict within Iran would spell disaster for the various Axis of Resistance members in West Asia receiving aid (in the form of intelligence, diplomacy, etc.)

Iranian leadership will not allow such a farce & will, therefore, steel themselves for the next few weeks & months. Regional tensions will continue to mount until American designs evaporate or are dealt with decisively.

As of yet, this has not happened. This means that the Iranians will now begin tit-for-tat escalations against the various US deployments in the region using their allies & proxies. The temperature will be dialled up to get the Americans to leave.

Should they decide to continue staying, a US-Iran War may be within the realm of possibility. If so, the Global Economy as we know it shall cease to exist.

India - Problems abound at Home & Beyond

An Indian paramilitary trooper stands guard along a street in Srinagar [File: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP]

India enters 2024 with a wide gamut of troubles. Insurgencies to the East, in particular in the neighbouring nation of Myanmar, have emboldened tribal civic groups in Eastern India. As the EAOs make more significant gains against the juntas:

Said tribal groups view these successes as licenses to agitate more for their rights, autonomy, etc. Clashes & Skirmishes kept under control for many years in the region have thus begun anew, especially in Manipur.

Meanwhile, tensions in Kashmir continue to simmer, as its population is still profoundly angered by the revocation of the territory's special status & privileges. As the nation's East looks more precarious, troubles abound also in the West.

Meanwhile, in the Red Corridor, a decades-long Naxalite-Maoist insurgency continues to simmer, with successive governments falling short of outright quashing said rebels, hidden away in their jungle & hilly fortresses.

Individually, these are all minor issues. However, 2024 is a year of significant change:

As Pax Americana crumbles at ever-accelerating rates, the US-India relationship is rapidly deteriorating, with the former taking a more strident tone against the latter's internal affairs.

In particular, greater emphasis is being placed on India's 'Human Rights record.'

While still a 'longshot' at present, it is possible that shortly, various attack vectors could be employed by US intelligence & military outfits to destabilize the former ally state of India. If so, the three 'hotspots' touched upon earlier may all be touched upon.

If so, Indian society, given its sheer size & bureaucratic complexity, will find it challenging to address all of them simultaneously. In particular, the many 'small brushfires' that would pop up may cause far too much internal turmoil.

In the New Year, Indian leadership ought to be careful around its 'ally' & keep its intelligence agencies up to speed on all matters.

Bangladesh - A nation at a Historic Crossroads!

People confront with police during the 12th general election in Chattogram, Bangladesh, January 7, 2024. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

Bangladesh is a nation at a historic crossroads. Considered today by the West to be a 'Hybrid regime' where Democratic institutions are rapidly evaporating, the leadership in said nation has decided to turn Eastward for new friends.

Russia & China have already warmed up to the nation & moves are underway to build vital infrastructure (i.e. ports, railways, etc.) so that the country can be integrated into the 'One Belt, One Road' initiative at a future date.

Various 'Jihadist' terror cells, meanwhile, stand in the way of said integration.

Foreign involvement & funding, especially from intelligence outfits from the USA & neighbouring India, have often been blamed for their numerous attacks in the past.

Both the USA & India have long meddled in the internal affairs of Bangladesh. The recent election, however, is being viewed with Mixed receptions.

Americans & Westerners see Bangladesh as a cautionary tale of 'Democratic backsliding,' whereby authoritarian tendencies are rapidly taking hold & shifting the country closer to Eurasia.

India, meanwhile, is sighing in relief that 'Islamism' can once more be 'guarded against' with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in charge.

With a Majority Muslim population (i.e. making up 90%+ of the citizenry), a national, populist government in the country would inevitably tilt toward Islamic governance.

This is what frightens not just India but also the Americans:

Should such a future transpire, Bangladeshi society would inevitably seek closer relations with the 'non-West.' India, meanwhile, would find that its 'penetration' of Bangladesh would be significantly impacted if such leadership were in charge.

& so various diplomatic ploys are being used to woo Bangladesh to pick one team over another. Offers from the West, India &/or Eurasia, etc., are being sent daily.

As to which 'pole' Bangladesh chooses in the future, that remains to be seen!

The Philippines - Drugs, Gangs & Anarchy

The victim of a summary execution found on a roadside in the Navotas area of Manila on Nov. 30

The Philippine Drug War has wound down in intensity these past few years. However, skirmishes of varying frequencies still exist around the most vital urban areas. Philippine society, meanwhile, is still contending with various 'jihadist' militias:

Today, the island archipelago nation is a veritable hotspot for the clash between the USA & China, with the latter beginning to make critical inroads into the island nation on matters of trade, commerce, etc. This has alarmed the Americans immensely:

Once an outright satellite of the USA, the Philippines holds an extraordinary place in the thinking of the nation's 'neocon leadership,' whereby it is one of the critical firewalls in place to stop the Chinese from building a global bluewater navy.

Historically, this has meant US military personnel acting as 'tripwire' forces to keep the Chinese 'boxed in.' However, during the Duterte presidency, significant agreements with China undermined said arrangements.

With Chinese designs in Taiwan more open than ever before & the PLN stronger by orders of magnitude than decades past, American military & intelligence outfits will likely be used in whatever manner possible to try & prevent said designs.

If this means exacerbating the drug war (which is winding down at present), then so be it. It would not be the first time that American war planners have chosen outright to destabilize an ally nation for US geopolitical interests.

A lot of the 'jihadist' militias in the nation have historically been at the beck & call of American intelligence. This year, they may be 'activated' to better keep the Philippine leadership 'in line' with American designs rather than Chinese ones.

As to whether or not this can succeed, that is quite doubtful. American assets are already stretched thin worldwide, so sparing even more might be tricky!

West Papua - Separatism in Indonesia's 'sore spot'

TPNPB militants around weapons purchased through local municipal funds. (Source: TEMPO.co)

West Papuan separatists continue to give Indonesian security forces increased headaches going into the New Year. The TPNPB (i.e. West Papua National Liberation Army) has kept them busy with low-level skirmishes throughout the mostly jungle island:

'Containment' has all but failed as a viable strategy due to the nature of the island's terrain & the rebel group's low cost & crude tactics. Security forces have been at a loss these past few years in tackling such tactics.

As Indonesia increasingly turns eastward toward the BRICS+, this sore spot (albeit small at present) may be used as an attack vector against the large archipelago nation of nearly 300 million. The strategy of 'containment' may soon fail:

As with East Timor several decades ago, the West Papua rebels seek greater international recognition to leverage some form of 'divorce' with Indonesia.

If this were to succeed, Indonesia would be crippled from losing a large chunk of its Western territories.

The leadership, therefore, is particularly wary of movements promoting greater autonomy & self-governance (owing to the past with East Timor), viewing them as threats to the greater territorial integrity of the mostly archipelago nation.

That there is some 'American hand' in the region (be it from the NED or some other so-called 'NGO' to stoke separatist sentiment) is today taken as a given by the leadership. In fact, it could be argued that closer ties with BRICS+ are a result of said hand:

Indonesia has had several internal squabbles & coups in the past where American tinkering played a crucial role in exacerbating division & tension in the nation.

Steps have been taken since then to curb American influence. However, unlike Russia & China, this needs to be fully achieved. Until then, West Papua will remain a sore spot going into the New Year.

Jamaica - The CIA vs The DEA vs The Cubans

Members of security forces guard the streets after Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness declared a state of public emergency in parts of the capital Kingston, on November 15, 2022.

Jamaica ends 2023 with roughly 1,400 murders during said year.

The island nation has long been ravaged by a high crime rate for a variety of factors. Be it Haitian gangs making inroads or the island's security apparatus being woefully unprepared, several issues exist:

For one, the influence of various American intelligence outfits (such as the DEA & CIA primarily) has eroded the island nation's social fabric considerably, spawning endemic corruption across its various institutions these past few decades.

Then again, Cuban guerillas have long sought to instigate revolution on the island, taking advantage of said corruption.

Altogether, a political crisis has been spawned by this 'three-way tussle,' making Jamaica exceptionally vulnerable to criminal elements (from within & overseas).

Haitian gangs who have sought expansion overseas have eyed Jamaica in recent years, seeking to 'set up shop' in the urban areas. The security apparatus has buckled considerably in trying to prevent said groups from penetrating into the island:

Altogether, a political crisis has been spawned by this 'three-way tussle,' making Jamaica exceptionally vulnerable to criminal elements (from within & overseas).

In 2023, this manifested with violent crimes such as murder, kidnappings, etc., reaching record levels. Should the crime wave not be controlled, spillovers may begin to affect the rest of the Caribbean with the New Year.

American interests in the region will be negatively impacted should this continue. Additionally, the porous Southern Border may further exacerbate the matter.

Jamaican organized crime has ambitions to expand abroad, & they may see the weak border as an opportunity to do just that.

Given the current incompetence of border patrol & other related internal security agencies, this will spell a disaster for American inner cities.

What the Americans will do next is still unclear, but it must be done quickly. Jamaican leadership will not be able to stop organized crime, making their move to 'bigger markets' shortly. More overall focus on Jamaica by America is thus warranted.

Honduras - Constitutional Woes & Gang Warfare

FILE - Soldiers patrol the Riviera Hernandez neighborhood in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, June 27, 2023. President Xiomara Castro took office in 2022 as the first female president of Honduras, winning on a message of tackling corruption, inequality and poverty, and has sought to mimic neighboring El Salvador's crackdown on gangs. (AP Photo/Delmer Martinez, File)

Soldiers patrol the Riviera Hernandez neighborhood in San Pedro Sula, Honduras on June 27, 2023 [AP/Delmer Martinez]

Honduras, still reeling from its coup d'etat in 2009 after an exceptionally violent Constitutional Crisis, has become a magnet for hordes of gangs, who primarily base themselves in the nation's capital. Things have gone downhill since then:

President Castro, elected 2021 (under an anti-corruption platform), suspended large chunks of the Constitution in 2022 & began a widespread crackdown on gangs nationwide. This 'state of exception' continues till today.

Hundreds of arrests have been made & many dozens of gang members eliminated. However, the underlying structure of these criminal enterprises is heavily decentralized, making it difficult to root them out decisively:

Honduras has long been an essential node in the Human Trafficking Network, spanning most of the New World. It has been a 'way-station' & stoppage point for those headed to Guatemala & then the Mexican countryside toward the USA.

Therefore, the various Honduran gangs are rarely 'wanting' about their finances, with some sporting advanced military-grade weaponry bought from the Mexican Cartels outright or stolen from Honduran security personnel.

Thus, in a strictly attritional battle, said gangs have the upper hand. Meanwhile, the government needs to improve in many areas. Be it outright corruption, lack of funds, etc., the gangs & criminal elements are in a far better position overall.

Should this simmering conflict escalate, SOUTHCOM might have to assist more directly than it currently does. However, since 2024 is an election year, several options may not be 'on the table.'

Additionally, if widespread electoral violence in 2024 does pan out as expected, The Southern Border may turn even more porous than it is, giving these criminal elements even greater leverage to exercise.

In summary, going into the New Year, little Honduras will likely be playing an outsized role, especially regarding the current political & social turmoil in the USA.

The CAR - A Brutal Civil War gradually grinding down

Wagner Group mercenaries protect President Faustin-Archange Touadéra at a rally on 17 July 2023.

The Central African Republic has been engrossed in a brutal civil war for well over a decade. The conflict initially involved the government, rebels from the Séléka coalition, & Anti-balaka militias.

Over the years, other actors (such as Rwanda, the Lord's Resistance Army, etc.) got involved, magnifying the anguish of the civilian populace. The current iteration of the conflict has become a crucial battleground for The Wagner Group.

Russian soft power, already on the ascent with large chunks of the Global South refusing to explicitly back Ukraine during the SMO, has reached new heights with the CAR government signing contracts with Wagner Mercenaries.

What was once solely the domain of nations like France, the UK & the US (with their respective military contract agencies), Russia too, has now joined the fray. This has alarmed the leadership & intelligentsia classes in the West.

Many have historically been paranoid about 'Russian interference' in their governments, & so this entry of Wagner onto the world stage has made many leaders panic at the broader implications:

Should some future conflict pit the Russians & the West in a broader capacity, the presence of Wagner in the CAR & nearby would mean sufficient force projection to impede essential goods (such as rare earth minerals) from reaching European coffers.

Europe, a continent already de-industrialized significantly, would not survive such a Supply-side shock. The Global Economy, meanwhile, would be crippled by the impeding of rare earths reaching markets. 'The international system' would collapse.

Therefore, Wagner's deployment to the area is viewed as an existential threat to the 'Rules Based World Order' currently run by the USA & vassals. A response of some sort will be mounted against these deployments.

What specific shape will that take & when will it happen? These questions remain unanswered for now!

Mozambique - 'Islamism' in Southern Africa

Mozambican soldiers in Mocímboa da Praia, in Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique, on September 27, 2022. © 2022 Camille Lafont/AFP via Getty Images

In the province of Cabo Delgado, various 'jihadist' militias still simmer & continue to wreak havoc. While in 2023, such attacks were far lower than in recent years, said guerilla forces can still pose a potent security risk:

The nearby nations of Tanzania, Kenya, etc., are currently finalizing the decades-long project of the East African Federation, which would see overnight the birth of a country with over 330+ million people, spanning more than 4.8 million square kilometres.

Key to the project's success is internal cohesion & external security; the latter is threatened by Mozambique's current security predicament. Therefore, a critical Geopolitical outcome is being delayed by said security risk.

Groups like Al-Shabab, in particular, have disrupted trade & commerce on the Swahili Coast, hampering overall regional integration. They must be defeated soundly before the project of the East African Federation will be elusive.

Mozambique, who wish to join the Federation, has cooperated from time to time on joint operations with its neighbours to root out these militias. However, the job is yet to be completed, & there are remote areas yet to be cleared.

In 2024, the expectation is that the rest of the militias will be cleared by Mozambique & friends. They have been whittled down considerably, so the rest may be cleared off in the New Year.

Until then, an element of Chaos will remain, preventing the EAF from being born. In addition to its other woes (in particular, the various wars & conflicts in the DRC), the project is stillborn without these matters being addressed.

African unification is about to reach a milestone, & if Uncle Sam 'sits this one out,' the region's people will be the better for it.

'Imperial overstretch' is giving the many nations of East Africa a golden opportunity to pursue peaceful unification.

Cameroon - Civil War in the Niger Delta

A portrait of Cameroon's president, Paul Biya, is seen as soldiers prepare ahead of a parade marking the 51st celebration of Unity Day in Yaounde on May 20. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

We finally come to Cameroon & its 'Anglophone Crisis' & Civil War. The conflict (to varying degrees) sprung up throughout Cameroon's history, post-independence.

Ambazonia, historically Anglophone, has often had qualms with how the rest of the nation has favoured Francophones in government, wider society, etc.

In 2016, this dissatisfaction came to a head with widespread protests for safeguarding the Common Law rights of Anglophone Cameroonians. After it was quashed, tensions mounted & Ambazonian separatists kickstarted the 'Anglophone Crisis.'

Today, it is also known as the 'Cameroon Civil War.' However, it is primarily of a 'separatist' orientation whereby the rebels are more interested in a 'divorce' with Cameroon & the establishment of an independent, Anglophone Ambazonia.

Mediation has been attempted a few times. Most recently, in 2020 (& earlier in 2019 in Switzerland), these talks reached a standstill & failed on both occasions. Fighting continues till today, & is now primarily of a low-intensity tempo.

Separatists continue bombings, kidnappings, etc., style 'hit & run' attacks whereby 'open confrontation' with the Cameroonian security forces is avoided in favour of low-level, asymmetric attacks.

Overall, Cameroonian society has fared poorly from these tactics. Over 1 million have been displaced & over 4 million are now dependent on humanitarian aid.

The Separatists utilize the terrain in the Niger Delta skillfully, retreating into the wilderness whenever possible:

In doing so & avoiding a pitched, decisive battle, they have prolonged the conflict & stretched thin the state apparatus. Cameroonian leadership may soon find themselves forced to negotiate on poor terms.

In 2024, this may occur. If so, the nation will likely destabilize from the loss in prestige & legitimacy, thereby making the wider Niger Delta more prone to various guerillas turning it into their 'home base.' If so, the region will likely see more Chaos.

This ends the 'Global Armed Conflict: 2023 Rundown' Series!

Next time, we will go over the 'Brief' for the series, which summarizes the critical hotspots to watch out for in 2024! It will serve as an Abridged version of this entire 3-part series.

It will be posted to my Stack, & the Most Wonderful Sir Frank Wright's Stack as a Guest Post!

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