Global Armed Conflict: 2023 Rundown [Part II]

Wars (1,000 to 9,999 deaths); A Compact look ahead to 2024 & beyond

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In Part II, we will move away from the currently extant Major Wars & look to Wars. These are conflicts that have peaked & begun to Dénouement &/or those that show signs of escalating much further, thereby going Kinetic & transitioning to becoming Major Wars.

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Afghanistan: Peace at last? The Future remains unclear!

A Taliban security patrol in Kandahar, Afghanistan, on the second anniversary of the militants’ takeover.Credit...EPA, via Shutterstock

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It has been a bit over two years since US forces fled Afghanistan in defeat & shame.

Afghanistan, now under Taliban rule, is a nation in recovery. However, significant hurdles & key bottlenecks continue to exact a heavy toll on the landlocked mountain nation.

Republican forces, having isolated themselves in the Panjshir Valley, a historical stronghold for Tajiks… are in dire straits. While their ‘Valley fortress’ is nigh impossible to breach without severe losses, it is likewise Isolated overall:

The Republicans (historically pro-Tajik) are all but out of the current struggle for power over the nation, lest some novel Foreign Intervention begins in earnest.

In the meantime, the new Taliban government has to contend with two primary challenges to their at present fragile authority: lack of International recognition, as well as the so-called ‘Islamic’ State & their guerrillas in & around Khorasan.

The latter poses the most significant security risk to the war-weary population, whose nation’s infrastructure, public services, etc, have never truly had the chance to flourish given the past more than four decades of war, conflict, civil strife, etc.

Meanwhile, the former keeps the nation from receiving valuable food, financial, material, etc. aid. For a country ravaged by decades of war, & whose underpinnings for much of said time have relied on UN Humanitarian work:

This is a death sentence for tens of thousands of Women, Children, Elderly & Innocents. Without the Taliban government garnering much-needed recognition above, the pathways for Aid & Humanitarian assistance will remain clogged.

This, in turn, means the various internal Security threats (from the Republicans, IS-KP, etc.) will only continue to Simmer away, thereby Attriting away security personnel, innocents, etc. Peace, thus, is still far from becoming a concrete reality overall.

It may remain that way for quite some time still…

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Syria: Dénouement, or Calm before the Storm?

While the front lines in Syria are often quiet, death and destruction are never too far away [File: Bekir Kasim/Anadolu Agency]

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Syria, which went through perhaps the Deadliest of Armed conflicts in the 2010s, is beginning to see some signs of much-needed Stability amidst the ongoing Carnage.

The nation; once a playground for US & Western tinkering (in the form of CIA-backed “Jihadist” crazies & various Kurdish militia groups) is beginning to stage a comeback.

President Assad, once the Pariah of the Arab world, has ‘Dug deep’ & (courtesy of Russian & Iranian assistance) has beaten back the myriad threats to his nation, both foreign & domestic. As such, ‘Re-normalization’ with said Arab states is in motion.

However, significant roadblocks remain in front of said endeavour:

The Israel-Palestine war has re-opened the matter of the Golan Heights in earnest. As such, the various ‘useful idiots’ of the empire (i.e. aforementioned CIA-backed crazies, the Kurdish militias, etc.) are once more on the move nationwide.

Over a third of Syrian territory is still held by said groups, with US forces (both regulars & mercenaries) likewise present in key chokepoints, hampering trade flows (both inward & outward) to the war-torn country.

As tensions increase in West Asia courtesy of the Slaughter in Palestine, President Assad will find himself more & more entangled by said web of enemies:

The Zionists will continue their strikes on Damascus & nearby areas. The “Jihadists” will continue Attriting away the Syrian Arab Army nationwide while the Kurds (& their American masters) will continue Choking the country of vital resources.

All signs, therefore, indicate that the ‘Dénouement’ of previous months & years is rapidly coming to an end, with Total War on the horizon for not just the peoples of Syria but likewise the rest of West Asia (with Palestine as its Flashpoint).

The sundry Russian & Iranian military personnel (primarily sent as attaches) to the region may soon find themselves with little choice: As things get more Kinetic, they too may have to join the fray in full so that Syria does not fall to Western forces.

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Yemen: ‘David vs. Goliath’ Redux; World Trade in Danger!

A view shows a military parade held by the Houthis to mark the anniversary of their takeover in Sanaa, Yemen, September 21, 2023. Houthi Media Office/Handout via Reuters

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Tiny Yemen has made headlines for their sheer Audacity in the past few weeks.

The poorest nation in the Arab world has been in a state of war since late 2014 when the Ansarallah movement (a grassroots force hailing mainly from the Zaidi Shia segment of Yemeni society) seized power in a nearly bloodless coup d’état.

A Saudi-led coalition intervened within months, curtailing back gains but failing to dislodge said movement from its traditional Northern stronghold.

Today, Ansarallah thus possesses one of the most battle-hardened bands of militiamen in the entire region. Most experts view the movement’s capabilities (i.e. about Missiles, Artillery & Drones) as Top-notch; surpassing those of nearby Hezbollah.

In recent weeks, with the first successful usage *ever* (in live combat) of ASBMs on “Israeli” tankers (& ships affiliated with the regime), the movement has demonstrated Decisively said capabilities for all to see. The “Israelis” thus a novel Threat Matrix:

Ansarallah has made clear to the world that all shipping affiliated with &/or transiting at Zionist ports will be fair game while passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits & moving through the Red Sea. They have followed through with said threats already:

Kamikaze UAVs, ASBMs, etc have regularly hit shipping. Major Shipping giants have already halted transit through said waterways, in effect opting for the longer route (i.e. ‘around Africa’), thus making World Trade more unstable.

Unless the Americans lift this de facto Blockade (& with speed), the ‘Superpower’ status of the said nation is in jeopardy, courtesy of an inability to leverage its Bluewater Navy to secure & safeguard Global Trade Routes.

Ansarallah can no doubt be “Bombed back to the Stone Age” (as some Americans love to say), but doing so will not stop ASBMs above, Drones, etc., from impeding World Trade. Ansarallah has already been down this road before:

Airpower from KSA (& other coalition members) have already levelled all segments of Yemeni society. Hundreds of thousands have already died; millions have already been displaced. American threats are ‘More of the Same.’

The Goliath of Empire will thus be hard-pressed to live under the aforementioned blockade anytime soon, so long as the David of Ansarallah chooses to continue sacrificing lives, property, honour, etc., on their end to Act in support of the Palestinians’ plights.

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Iraq: ‘Death to America’ goes mainstream; War inevitable

File photo shows Iraqi resistance fighters during a parade in the capital, Baghdad. (Photo by Reuters)

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The Popular Mobilization Forces (i.e. PMF) in Iraq have hit the “Kill Switch”:

The Iranians via the ‘Quds Force’ (i.e. one of the five branches of the IRGC) have likely have given the ‘go ahead’ for the final, Kinetic sequence of maneuvers to push out the US & friends from West Asia, once & for all. The PMF, thus, has begun to act:

A collective group of various militias (primarily comprising Iraqi nationalists, Shiite fighters, etc. groups) have begun swarming US Assets in Iraq & Syria with their stashes of cheap, easily deployable weaponry. Already, US Forces are in a bind:

Hundreds of attacks (via SRBMs, Kamikaze UAVs, Mortars, Rocket Artillery, etc.) have inflicted considerable damage to US Assets & Bases already. Given the ‘skeletal’ nature of said sites (i.e. some having a few hundred troops at most)…

…it is only a matter till they are inevitably assaulted en masse.

Please make no mistake: The PMF (& their sundry Axis of Resistance allies) are not stupid: until the Americans are Bled White of all their defences (interceptors, defensive UAVs, etc.), no such manoeuvres will be undertaken.

But that this is the general direction of travel is all but certain.

US Forces are too overstretched & vulnerable courtesy of how most of these bases & assets are located.

When they are swarmed in the manner above, death tolls for US servicemen will easily reach the tens of thousands.

The Americans (well, at least the ones with some modicum of literacy in Military Science) know this, & know it very well.

This is why the focus at present is to prevent the Israel-Palestine war from going full Kinetic & Regional. However, ‘Israeli’ atrocities have made this nigh impossible.

Public Anger in Iraq is about to boil over; & with it, the fate of most of the aforementioned US Servicemen (surrounded & pounded in all directions by cheap, easy-to-set-up weaponry) is all but sealed… Tick Tock!

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Somalia: Pirates, ‘Jihadists,’ Wider War… Oh My!

Somali maritime police patrol the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Puntland State, Somalia, Nov. 26, 2023. (AP Photo/Jackson Njehia)

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Somalia, the pirate haven extraordinaire of the past few decades… shows no sign of shedding said notorious reputation in the New Year.

Somaliland, a de facto sovereign state comprising Somalia’s northern regions, is still a formidable force. This is despite having merely a third or less of the forces (population, labour, etc.) of the internationally recognized government in Mogadishu.

Several reasons (historical & geographic) exist for this continued disparity. Chief among them is the tenuous state that Somalia has always found itself in: Namely, as a ‘plaything’ for the Great Powers over the centuries due to its key strategic location.

The Lion’s share of Shipping Traffic through the Suez Canal inevitably passes through the Red Sea, into the Gulf of Aden & then the Arab Sea & Indian Ocean. Somalia has always had ‘first dibs’ about the aforementioned Traffic volumes.

Historically, this has meant widespread Piracy on the High seas by bands of small, lightly armed, elusive & well-coordinated militias. The government has never had much sway over said groups & has routinely asked for “International Help”:

But this has never amounted to much courtesy of (1) Said groups being highly Decentralized & (2) The genuine grievances they have a la, most of them being farmers, fishers, herders, etc., who have lost their livelihoods (for a myriad of reasons).

Direct US expeditions have thus never amounted to much (save for more dead Somalis & more militias). Ergo, the play has been to use CIA-backed ‘Jihadists’ to keep the region chaotic & exercising sufficient influence to keep the waterways open…

… however while this strategy has no doubt paid off, with Palestine being brutalized with all manner of barbarisms, this architecture is beginning to fall apart:

Yemen’s Ansarallah fired the ‘first shot’ a la their de facto blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait… & now the various, disparate bands of pirates (big & small) are doing something unprecedented: they are beginning to coordinate en masse.

That this is dangerous to US Sea Power is a vast understatement. As the region moves ever closer to a full-blown Regional War, it appears that the bands of Somali pirates will play a key role in determining the outcome of said struggle.

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Pakistan: The ‘One that keeps on getting away’

A powerful bomb exploded at a rally celebrating the birth anniversary of Prophet Muhammad in southwest Pakistan in late September, killing many people and wounding dozens of others [File: Arshad Butt/AP Photo]

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The province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has descended into Pure Anarchy in recent months, as the various organs of Home Defence in Pakistan have all but failed in keeping a lid on the TTP (i.e. ‘Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’) & allied militias.

A fragile truce which had kept said groups at peace with government forces… all but broke down in June of this year when the TTP & allies resumed small-scale skirmishes, attacks & raids all across Pakistan’s Westerly provinces:

That this has overwhelmed the state security apparatus is an understatement. Pakistani society; already burdened by political turmoil (be it the ousting of Prime Minister Imran Khan & sundry related chaos) is in no mood for a new war.

With the triumph of the Taliban in Afghanistan & the re-emergence of the Islamic Emirate after some 2 decades, the TTP has been encouraged to try once more & correct what (in their eyes) is a historic Injustice per the folly of the Durand Line:

Many of the militias under the TTP umbrella advocate outright separatism & unification with the aforementioned Islamic Emirate, whilst others advocate a separate Pashtun homeland with closer ties to the New Afghan government.

The newly formed Islamic Emirate denies assistance (financial, military, etc.), ties, etc, to the aforementioned umbrella. However, the trend is clear:

With the Americans now out of Afghanistan for good; the security situation in Pakistan will deteriorate considerably (& continue to do so) as the TTP & allies press forward with the momentum garnered from the Hegemon being kicked out.

Every few years (& decades) analysts have wondered whether or not Pakistan can continue to exist as a viable national entity. Those questions have (quite predictably) returned once more; precisely because the once staunch American ally is in trouble:

With warfare becoming rapidly more accessible & cheaper (a la Drones, Missiles & Artillery becoming easier to operate, use & build), it is an open question whether the Pakistani state can withstand such a determined, decentralized & numerous foe.

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Colombia: Drugs & A National Crisis; Resurgent Woes

The Siona people, whose community straddles the Putumayo river, have faced decades of brutal impacts of violence from diverse armed actors, oil companies and extractive projects.

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War has reared its ugly head in Colombia once more. The decades-long Drug War in the Latin American nation is about to pop back into motion soon:

A 6-month ceasefire signed with FARC rebels is about to run its course in January 2024. Once it does, all signs indicate at present that hostilities will break out en masse, especially near the Catatumbo River & nearby areas (historic FARC strongholds).

Venezuela, a long-standing ally & supporter of the various FARC militias (courtesy of ideological & geopolitical rationales & calculi) is expected to soon pounce on the nearby nation of Guyana (i.e. specifically to acquire the long-disputed Essequibo):

This means that Colombia will be ‘kept at bay’ via renewed support (in the form of material, attaches, expertise, etc.) to FARC & friends. As such, said militias are already engaged in ‘prep work’ which foresees aforementioned inevitabilities.

In particular, skirmishes, kidnappings, low-level clashes, etc, have already begun in those low-density areas (lacking sufficient troop counts anyhow) that are historically notorious for the national tragedy: namely, kidnappings for Ransom.

Analysts specializing in the region are in agreement: these are signs & indicators of the coming Geopolitical Storm in the wider region:

Once Venezuela makes its move sometime next year & forays into the Essequibo; FARC & friends will be given the ‘go ahead’ to embark on their various operations against the Colombian government. The region would, ergo, rapidly Destabilize.

Migrant caravans (already well in the hundreds of thousands monthly) will breach the 1-2 million mark as the Darien Gap is swamped by those fleeing war, starvation, poverty, drugs & massacres. The USA will find its Southern Border Buckling…

…this may be the straw that breaks the ‘Camel’s Back’ once & for all.

American society, unable to stop the drugs, gang warfare, crime waves, social tensions, etc, from its migration woes… will go fully ‘Supernova’ once monthly numbers get that high. The ‘Great Colossus’ will find its feet turning to clay quite soon.

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Nigeria: Boko Haram & Communal Violence; Familiar Woes

Residents transport their belongings as they flee on motorcycles towards Mangu, near Jos in the Plateau State in Nigeria, on May 20, 2023, escaping unrest in central Nigeria. © AFP

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Nigerian society faces growing crises from a myriad of fronts, going into the new year:

Boko Haram, another outfit of ‘Jihadist’ terror (translation: an Intelligence outfit bought & paid for by the various US three letter agencies) continues to wreak havoc in the countryside with widespread kidnappings (for ransom), raids, bombings, etc.

Then, too, communal violence between herders (the Fulani & Hausa mostly) & farmers (Adara, Atyap et al. primarily) is at an all-time high. Going into the New Year, all trends indicate spikes in said communal violence for a myriad of reasons:

For one, Boko Haram & related militias have overstretched the already fractured security apparatus of Nigeria. As ECOWAS declines (courtesy of the new ASS framework promoted by Traore & friends), the prestige of said apparatus is waning.

This has translated to an overall loss of confidence in the government’s ability to crack down on the various disparate groups (Communal or ‘Jihadist’ in orientation) in tandem with less cooperation, trust, etc. Altogether, this is an utter disaster:

Areas like the Plateau State (& nearby regions) have always worked more on Deterrence & Faith in the armed forces of the Central government (more so than exercising actual military might). That this is waning means a Power Vacuum is the result.

Then, too, climate patterns in the Sahel have been poor these past few years, making the incoming herdsmen (& friends) ever more aggressive & less amiable to reason.

Thereby, the overall threshold for initiating violence is at an all-time low in the nation.

What happens next to Nigerian society is hard to say, however:

Should the nation ‘buck the trend’ & go all in with the emergent architecture of BRICS+, there may yet be a way to salvage the rapidly devolving situation at home.

However, whether Nigerian leadership (notorious for their corrupt dealings & ties to Western leaders, firms, etc.) is up for that… is currently unclear!

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South Sudan: A Nation Still Hobbled by Ethnic Violence

© UNMISS/Peter Bateman

South Sudanese refugees are returning home following unrest in Sudan.

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War in neighbouring Sudan has begun to take its toll on South Sudan:

The new nation; born only a decade ago, is already dealing with the fallout from a long civil war that concluded in 2020. In particular, widespread Ethnic Violence by nomadic cattle herders (chiefly the Murle & Lou Nuer) has already exacted a heavy toll:

The 2013-2020 Civil War created a Refugee Crisis (with many seeking asylum in neighbouring Sudan) whilst the continual Nomadic conflict has in effect ‘sandwiched’ aforementioned asylum seekers; thereby giving them an impossible dilemma:

Either keep on staying in neighbouring Sudan & fall victim to the currently ongoing Third Sudanese Civil War, or come back to South Sudan & face a similarly perilous fate at the hands of the aforementioned renewal in Nomadic conflict.

The simplistic geography (Desert & mostly flat terrain with little cover) means it is nigh impossible to flee in any direction without being massacred by warring groups in either nation; thus the ‘sandwiching’ is exacerbated further as people continue fleeing:

Various UN groups note that at present, the Lions’ share of camps for refugees & asylum seekers are near the border regions of the two nations, but as to how long this can last whilst conflicts in both nations spread, that is the key question.

The East African Federation (of which South Sudan has recently become a member) has promised to work on the matter (in tandem with the South Sudanese) & resolve it with speed, but time is rapidly running out on the matter:

A Humanitarian catastrophe is near; & with it, hundreds of thousands will likely die of starvation, disease, outright naked violence, etc. … lest something drastic is done.

Military intervention by the EAF cannot be ruled out, but for now, it appears to be off the table. If so, South Sudan approaches a very grim fate in the near future.

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The Congo: Africa’s Deadliest War; Past, Present & Future

A United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) armoured personnel carrier (APC) drives through a road in Rhoe camp for the internally displaced people (IDPs) in Djugu's territory, Ituri's province, north-east of the Democratic Republic of Congo April 20, 2023. REUTERS

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The DR Congo is a nation whose people breathe, live & die in War.

The Second Congo War (some dub it the Great Africa War) which saw some 5.5-6 million or more deaths overall spanning 1998-2003; still haunts the popular imagination in the nation & its neighbours to this day:

That this war’s Aftermath was never resolved properly, is thus to be expected.

The DR Congo is hobbled by three ongoing, deadly conflicts going into 2024:

First, there is the Ituri conflict involving the agricultural Lendu peoples against the pastoral Hema peoples. Currently, this conflict is primarily asymmetrical and low intensity.

Second, there is the Kivu conflict to the East (in the two Kivu provinces) involving over a hundred militias; all remnants from the Second Congo War.

Third & finally, there is the simmering tensions with Rwanda & friends. The latter were foes of the DR Congo during the Second Congo War & to this day, continue to project power into the Congo by supporting various militant groups in the nation.

The net effect of these three conflicts is very straightforward: it makes DR Congo, this Gigantic African nation in the middle of the continent, spanning over 2.3 million square kilometres & over 110 million people… extremely fragile.

Historically, such types of conflicts have been exploited by its much smaller neighbours to gain leverage on the larger nation; & in recent history, this mindset of ‘Divide & Conquer’ precipitated the deadly Second Congo War.

It is unclear if we are about to see history repeat itself, but so far, it appears that African leaders are at least making Noises about Pan-African Unity & thereby (formally on paper at least) reject the idea of a “Second Great Africa War”.

The East African Federation is attempting to mend the past & integrate the DR Congo into its architecture quickly. But whether the Fragile African Giant’s Centre can hold till Confederation occurs is unclear.

In 2024, we may yet see the patterns & trends outlining to us the general direction of travel with regard to the DR Congo’s future; namely, whether it will be part of a future Confederation or fall victim to a future “Second Great Africa War”.

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Haiti: Gangs, Drugs, Anarchy & Vigilantism; Raw Chaos

Armed police safeguard the funeral of three fellow officers killed by gangs in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, January 31, 2023 Guerinault Louis/ Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

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We come finally to Haiti, a tiny island nation that never truly recovered from the calamity wrought onto it via the 2010 earthquake & its various consequences.

It was roughly 2 years ago, in the summer of 2021, when the then president Jovenel Moïse was assassinated by mercenaries from Colombia at his own residence.

With his demise, the delicate balancing act he had cobbled together via aligning with the G9 alliance of gangs… went up in smoke & the nation descended into anarchy.

Today, the G-9 fight against the G-Pep alliance, with both likewise being fought by Haitian security forces, who have lacked the proper means, ability, manpower, etc, to tackle both alliances of gangs since the conflict broke out years ago.

This has prompted the masses to engage in widespread vigilantism, courtesy of the aforementioned failures by the security apparatus. Haitian society today is thus mired in a ‘forever war’ focused most heavily on the urban areas & surroundings.

A Kenya-led “multinational security support mission” was authorized in October to deal with this escalating violence. But so far, nothing concrete has come off of that yet. In the meantime, the violence has surged & escalated in troubling ways:

Lynchings are on the rise. Diplomatic quarters (such as the US Embassy) have come under attack regularly; prompting embassy staff to go on lockdown.

If this conflict escalates further, the neighbouring Caribbean may soon find a proliferation of aforementioned gang alliances in their territories.

The migration waves this would generate; & the scale & scope of the fallout given the Southern Border’s already sorry state… is quite sobering to contemplate.

In effect then, early to mid-2024 will be the “Las Chance” for many to do something about Gang warfare in Haiti. For, afterwards, the conflict will escalate & turn into a full-blown Humanitarian crisis, spreading to the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.

The United States would be the primary recipient of the aforementioned crisis’ Woes, as violent criminals (from said gang alliances & related movements) make landfall.

Until US policy-makers take Haiti seriously & attempt to sincerely resolve hostilities in the island nation; trouble may soon come a bit too close to home for comfort.

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This is the end of Part II, where we looked at all ongoing Wars (i.e. with fatalities ranging from 1,000 to 9,999) this year.

In Part III, we look at all Minor Conflicts (i.e. with fatalities ranging from 100 to 999) in 2023.

Hopefully, Dear Reader(s), you enjoyed the Gloom, Doom & Despair from this Compact Rundown of Global Conflict!

I wish you all a most DOOM-full New Year!

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