Global Armed Conflict: 2023 Rundown [Part I]
Global Armed Conflict: 2023 Rundown [Part I]
Major Wars (over 10,000 deaths); A Compact look ahead to 2024 & beyond
Map of ongoing armed conflicts (number of combat-related deaths in current or past year): DARK RED: Major wars (10,000 or more), RED: Wars (1,000–9,999), ORANGE: Minor conflicts (100–999) & YELLOW: Skirmishes & clashes (1–99)
Deaths from armed conflict in the latter half of the previous decade (i.e. the 2010s). NOTE: The Syrian conflict, which dominated death counts for much of said decade; winds down considerably toward the end. At the beginning of the 2020s, the dominant death counts hailed from the Mexican Drug War, The Yemeni Civil War & The War in Afghanistan.
Fatalities from the Top 20 Armed Conflicts, spanning the years of 2018-2022.
Fatalities in the Tigray War peaked around early to mid-2022 with over 100,000+ dead.
Said year was dominated primarily by the Russo-Ukrainian War, which yielded well over 100,000+ dead.
Ukraine dominated the headlines for well over a year from then onward… until late 2023 when it was superseded by the Israel-Palestine war. Said slaughter continues with speed at present, even during the Holiday Season.
As of writing this piece, the latter is still at the forefront of global consciousness; be it in the US (courtesy of domestic politics) or abroad (courtesy of Muslim anger at the wanton nature of civilian slaughter).
As we end 2023 with the Holiday Season & look forward to the New Year; we will recap the widespread Slaughter & Carnage seen year long, worldwide.
In Part I, we will begin with the “Big Two” of 2023: Namely, the Israel-Palestine War, & the Russo-Ukrainian War. Both have dominated Global headlines for the overall Destruction wrought on Innocents, Infrastructure & the extant World Order.
We will then move to some lesser known & talked about conflicts; namely:
The Conflict in the Sahel, The Internal Conflict in Myanmar, The Mexican Drug War, The Ethiopian Civil Conflict & The War in the Sudan.
Israel-Palestine: A Kinetic War becoming more Regional
Smoke rises following an “Israeli” bombardment in the Gaza Strip, as seen from Southern Occupied Palestine, Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023 (AP Photo)
Upon the successful execution of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in the early morning hours of October 7, 2023; ‘Israeli’ society went into mass Shock, Fear & Panic.
What followed in the coming days & weeks was anything but a “proportionate” response. The ground invasion by the ‘Israelis’, which began on October 27; & continues as of this writing, has basically turned Gaza into a Hell-scape.
Airstrikes have levelled whole neighbourhoods. Some 90% of Gaza’s today are displaced. Over 20,000 Palestinians have already been killed, with over 50,000+ wounded (70%+ of all aforementioned casualties are women & children).
That this has enraged the wider public in much of the Arab World… is an understatement. Long-standing allies of the US (Jordan, KSA, Bahrain & Egypt) are struggling to keep the lid on Public Anger boiling over. It is however, a losing battle:
Social Media (once a rather nascent technology) has made the crimes of the ‘Israeli’ Occupation visible worldwide. In essence, a Genocide & Ethnic Cleansing is happening live; with members of said nation’s govt. giving it their full assent.
To say this is “intolerable”, is being far too polite. The US rubber-stamping of said crimes does not help; rather it aggravates further not merely “Arab street”, but likewise the wider Muslim world & other nations in the Global South.
The ‘Israelis’ have in effect guaranteed (via aforementioned crimes) that the utter destruction of their regime is all but inevitable. For, they have eschewed in totality the concept of ‘Economy of Enemies’: It is today a Pariah; despised by almost all nations.
Already, over half a million ‘Israelis’ have fled their summer homes of Tel Aviv, Haifa, etc. to their second (sometimes third or even fourth) homes in the US or *insert EU vassal here*; courtesy of a total collapse in ‘Israeli’ deterrence.
More will continue to flee en masse as the war escalates.
That this deterrence is forever lost… is all but guaranteed. The military raid that occurred on October 7, all but laid bare the inefficacies of the ‘Israeli’ military.
Henceforth, the ‘Israelis’ will no longer be viewed as the ‘strongest’ military in the region, but rather a Pariah with whom ‘Diplomacy’ is nothing more than a Farce.
Make no mistake; Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was a resounding success:
The Palestinian JOR (i.e. Joint Operations Room), of whom Hamas is the largest group (among some 12 or so other groups) retreated safely back to their underground tunnels & bases with key military hostages (some of whom are very high level).
At the bare minimum (should the war not go more Kinetic in the other Regional theatres), said hostages will be exchanged in full to ‘empty out’ Zionist prisons. Such an outcome would mean a JOR triumph; & a crippling blow to Zionist legitimacy.
The reason is simple: ‘Israel’ has no real ability to achieve its maximalist war goals (i.e. eliminating Hamas, demilitarizing the Gaza strip & ‘de-radicalizing’ it). There are simple too many tunnels, bases, etc. to breach & too little time:
The Bad-el-Mandeb is in a de facto blockade by Yemen’s Ansarallah. Hezbollah (in Lebanon), Hashd Al-sha’bi (in Iraq) & the various militias in the West Bank (JOR affiliated & also independent forces) are meanwhile choking the Zionist entity:
The strikes (via rocket artillery, drones, SRBMs, etc) on vital infrastructure is exacting a heavy toll on the economy. Bloomberg (prior to the Yemeni blockade) estimated some 279 million USD being lost daily from aforementioned Attrition.
For an economy whose GDP is no bigger than 600 billion USD; time is not on the ‘Israelis'’ side. Most likely, they will seek to escalate the conflict into a more Kinetic, Regional War, whereby some decisive outcome & victory can be garnered.
This will probably be on the Northern front against Hezbollah.
However, should this occur, the Zionist entity may unravel entirely given its lack of military prowess (now very obvious for all to see). The IDF of 2023 is a far cry from the IDF of the late 1960s & early 1970s; Today it is primarily a ‘military police’ force.
Hezbollah meanwhile, is far stronger than it was back in 2006 (during the Zionists’ ill fated invasion of Southern Lebanon). It has a full suite of ASBMs, SRBMs, etc.; all of which can be brought to bear on every major ‘Israeli’ city should Total War ensue.
Will they choose this manner of demise, or prefer instead the aforementioned de-escalation, which results in a JOR victory; thereby crippling their own legitimacy?
Only Time will Tell!
Ukraine: A Nation on the brink; as an Endgame nears
Thousands of Ukrainian military personnel from the northeastern city of Kharkiv have been buried at a cemetery on its edge since Russia’s SMO began last year. SOURCE: THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
“Project Ukraine” has seen better days. Zelensky, once a Rockstar in the various EU Vassal capitals & considered a “Second Winston Churchill”, is today considered by many as a burden (at best) & a complete liability (at worst).
US Aid (in the form of financing, munitions, etc.) has kept his regime afloat for much of 2023; however said Gravy Train is about to come to an end.
As of this writing, The US Senators & Congressmen have fallen short with regard to agreeing to a new aid package for said Client state.
Over 75 billion USD has already been allocated (since the war broke out in February 24, 2022) of which over 45 billion USD has been mainly aid in the form of Weaponry & Munitions. However, the lion’s share of said funding & munitions has Run Dry.
Ukrainian society; already drafting men aged 17-70 & also pulling in more & more women & girls by the day, courtesy of the mass Slaughter of fighting age men on the East European Steppe (by Russian Missiles, Artillery & Drones), …is in deep trouble.
Unless the Americans continue sending weaponry in munitions (in equal or higher quantities) as before, in tandem with tens of billions more in financial aid (to keep paying the various Oligarchs & their lackeys):
The society will Implode rapidly. Already, worrying signs are beginning to emerge:
General Zaluzhny (Commander-in-Chief of the AFU) appears to be Butting Heads with President Zelensky on key matters with increasing frequency.
Political Intrigue during times of National Crisis are normal; however now is the worst time for aforementioned fracturing of Ukrainian High Command.
The United States has made it clear (sometimes overtly ) that Ukrainian Aid is of secondary importance now that “Israel” is fighting for its very coherence & existence.
Should the pro-Zelensky & pro-Zaluzhny factions come to blows therefore; not much else can be done save for ‘pulling the plug’ with regard to aforementioned Aid.
At the end of the day, Ukraine is an ‘investment’ of sorts for the Western, Atlanticist “Elite” whose sole objective is to Bleed Russia Dry. If said objective can no longer be pursued in a manner deemed 'acceptable', the Aid will be cut off entirely.
At present, this seems to be the current direction of travel.
As Russian forces Attrit away what little remains of Ukrainian forces (now comprised primarily of women, teen boys & seniors), said Implosion becomes more inevitable.
President Putin has already made it clear that he considers “Odessa to be a Russian city”, hinting to the West what the Russian SMO’s future goals likely will be. If so, Ukraine will probably be Partitioned & therefore rendered a landlocked rump.
The timeline for this is unclear. Should the aforementioned Implosion occur with speed, we may see said Endgame unfold by mid to late 2024 at the latest.
Should the Ukrainians prove to be hardier & more resilient, the war may continue longer still. But that we are now moving toward a Partitioning & landlocked rump state; whereby some half (or more) of Ukraine is annexed; that much is certain.
The Sahel: The French flee; as Russian footprint expands
Soldiers of the last French troops in Niger board in a military plane as they prepare to leave Niamey, Niger December 22, 2023. REUTERS
French forces fled Mali in the summer of 2022; as the Strategic failures of Operation Barkhane finally caught up to the military leadership of said EU Vassal.
French failures in the region have simply compounded since then; with now the full withdrawal of all forces from Niger expected in the coming days & weeks.
The reasons for said withdrawal are myriad & complex; but primarily they stem from the rapidly shifting Political & Military realities of the Sahel region.
In particular, the new leadership of Mali, Niger & Burkina Faso have consolidated considerably & have in effect sought policies of mass de-colonization & nationalization.
As said trio of military dictators seek warmer ties with Russia, China & the wider Global South, the region’s Calculus has changed considerably:
ECOWAS; once the dominant regional bloc keeping the various West African nations ‘in line’ & amiable with Western interests, has all but collapsed.
Aforementioned trio have already requested Russian (in the form of military aid, training, expertise) and Chinese (in the form of engineers, funding, etc.) for future investment, works, etc. in their respective countries.
A new Security Architecture in the form of the Alliance of Sahel States (i.e. ASS) was recently formed, to provide a novel Collective Security framework for said trio.
With future plans for Confederation now put on the table & being openly discussed by the young Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso (& friends); the uphill battle has begun:
ECOWAS; a de-facto pro-Western consortium of vassals, will seek to impede aforementioned integration as much as possible. Expect also the popping up of various “Jihadist” (translation: CIA-funded crazies) factions to further stir the pot.
Traore & friends, using the vehicle of ASS need to keep their wits about them & be increasingly resourceful & cunning: Western influence in the region has no doubt suffered a mortal blow; however it will take much effort still to expel it in its entirety.
Myanmar: Junta loses ground; EAOs gain momentum
Three members of the Naypyidaw People’s Defense Force battalion take part in military training, in a temporary military camp, Karenni State, May 11, 2023 (Sipa photo by Thu Myae via AP Images).
Significant breakthroughs have been made by EAOs (i.e. Ethnic-Armed Organizations) in the eastern state of Shan; whereby several towns were overrun & dozens of military installations were seized in the month of October.
The Junta government, pro-Chinese in orientation & deeply skeptical of Western tinkering in the nation; has always gone the extra mile with regard to safeguarding the various state, military, etc. organs of Myanmarese society from said tinkering.
Unfortunately, this has led to grievances (some genuine) from the people going unheeded. This came to blows with the election of 2021 (won by the pro-Western NLD) being nullified by the February, 2021 coup d’état.
The civil war that broke out from the succeeding popular protests (some genuine, some Western-backed), has put the primarily Agrarian nation on the Back-foot; with years (perhaps decades) of Industrialization & related developments being nullified.
As EAOs like the ‘Three Brotherhood Alliance’ make greater progress on the battlefield; Chinese fortunes in the region wane. Should the Junta government unravel in the coming months; it would be a significant blow to regional integration.
Then too; any coalition of EAOs (even if grassroots & genuine), should they triumph; would mean likewise the triumph of Western tinkering in India & China’s backyard.
For, any such future rebel government would ipso facto turn more to Western powers (primarily the US) to safeguard themselves from a future Chinese &/or Indian intervention to restore the Junta, & roll back pro-Western NLD influences.
At this moment in time, with over half of Myanmar contested, & the Junta government still possessing significant battlefield capabilities; perhaps this is a tad bit premature.
By mid to late 2024 however, should the current trend of ‘small brushfires’ continue; whereby EAOs Attrit away the myriad military outposts & assets dotting the Southeast Asian nation… things may become clearer for Analysts to determine the overall trend.
Mexico: Drug War Escalation; Southern Border buckling
Members of the Mexican Navy stand next to plastic containers at a drug processing laboratory used to produce methamphetamine, in Culiacan, Mexico, in this handout picture distributed to Reuters on March 10, 2023. Mexico's Navy (SEMAR)/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
The US-Mexico (i.e. “Southern”) Border is an utter Basket Case at present:
The Mexican Cartels have modernized their arsenals in recent months significantly: whereby Battering Rams, improved armour & revamped hit-&-run tactics have further exacerbated an already horrendous humanitarian crisis.
Record outflows from Mexico into the Southern US states have been recorded these past few weeks & months; the lions share of the increases in said flows are coming primarily from increased fears amongst migrants with regard to life & property.
Previously; migrant caravans from the Central American states composed mostly of peoples fleeing from worsening economic & political fortunes. However, with the Implosion of Mexican society in the more rural states; the matter is quite grave:
Fentanyl & related drugs have already broken records with regard to inflows. As the Opioid crisis worsens in the Inner cities & gang-related crimes (from excess migration & the related tension & fallout) magnifies… the American people demand action.
Talk of using the US Army to combat aforementioned Cartels is already entering the discourse. However, the Mexican government (already skeptical of US policies regarding Latin America in general & Mexico in particular) would likely not cooperate.
If so, not much can be done. Construction of the Border Wall is already a Dead Horse courtesy of the ‘Biden’ regime’s lax attitude to illegal migration flows. Then too; with aforementioned record flows; Border personnel have long since been overwhelmed.
Should a new Trump-government enter the Calculus in the near future: perhaps more can be done. However, till then; the Mexican Drug War will continue exacting a heavy toll, both on Americans (in the inner cities & elsewhere) as well as Mexicans.
American society sadly; may not have much time left. A tipping point may have already been reached (& passed), as Crime Waves simmer all across the nation & (slowly but surely) turn the USA from ‘Superpower’ into ‘Supernova’.
Ethiopia: War & further Conflict looming; Peace illusive
Members of special force of the Amhara police stand next to sacks of food during food distribution for internally displaced people from Amhara [File: Eduardo Soteras/AFP]
With the devastating Tigray War behind it; the Ethiopian Central government is unfortunately staring down a new, perhaps equally devastating internal conflict:
Over the past two years, the Tigray War butchered hundreds of thousands in the North of the country; with millions displaced & tens of millions in need of food aid.
During said conflict, temporary alliances were made with a myriad of local militias, who have traditionally been under the banner of the nation’s various ethnic groups.
Whilst this allowed for an overstretched Central government to better tackle ambushes, skirmish tactics & various other “low-tech” stratagems, the trade-off was that part of the nation’s ethnic militias (specifically; the Amhara) were bolstered.
When attempts were then made to De-mobilize aforementioned once friendly militia forces, tensions reached a fever pitch therefore.
The Amhara (& allies) have argued that said De-mobilization would jeopardize the security of not only Amhara, but likewise the nearby regions as well.
An impasse has thus been reached, which is now rapidly devolving into full Civil War.
Ethiopia, already ravaged by the fires of war, will likely collapse into a full blown Humanitarian crisis, should the situation continue to escalate as predicted.
Given its accession to BRICS+ in the coming New Year, this can therefore be identified as a significant roadblock & hurdle to Afro-Eurasian integration by the forces of the Global South (currently lead by Russia & China, primarily).
Will there be an intervention by Russian (or perhaps even Chinese) forces into Ethiopia, given the rapidly Implosive nature of things?
Unlikely at present; since, unlike the Sahel trio, the Ethiopian govt. has not made any appeals for military assistance, from overseas. However, it may be the case that they may soon have no choice but to do so (given their vital status to BRICS+).
Ethiopia will not be allowed to fail; ergo Eurasian intervention might be looming…
Sudan: Mass Displacement & Refugee Crisis; Peace unlikely
Sudanese fighters ride in a vehicle in a military convoy accompanying the governor of Sudan's Darfur region while en route to Port Sudan on Aug. 30. AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
We come finally to the Sudan, where the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) holds on for dear life against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) & other militias. At present, all indications are that even more militias will pop up & further Balkanize the nation.
Large swathes of the country have already been ravaged, yielding over 5 million internally displaced peoples & over 1.5 million refugees. No significant headway meanwhile has been made on the Diplomatic side of things:
The Saudis attempted to mediate via the Treaty of Jeddah in May of this year… only for the treaty to be violated in mere days (& hours). Hostilities broke out rapidly, with the Treaty being in place for less than 3 days (as opposed to its allocation time of 1 week).
There is currently no end in sight to the conflict; albeit the RSF has the Momentum on its side, which it has utilized to devastating effect throughout the country:
Ethnic Cleansing, Pogroms & various related Atrocities have already occurred; with all manner of restraint, decency, etc. eschewed in favour of raw brutality.
Allegations abound with regard to Foreign involvement, courtesy of the RSF’s resounding successes in key battles in & around Khartoum & elsewhere:
Be it the Wagner group, the UAE, Chad, etc; the SAF have claimed that the RSF have received aid (military, financial, etc.) from all of aforementioned forces to varying degrees. This has further dialled up the temperature & made Diplomacy much harder.
Sudan has already gone through Two Civil Wars previously (the most recent one broke off the southern half of the country & birthed the nation of South Sudan); in essence this is the Third Civil war the nation has undergone since independence in 1956.
Whether or not the Territorial Integrity of the state can be maintained given the propensity of violence & the widespread Refugee Crisis currently in progress…
… is an open question.
This is the end of Part I, where we looked at all currently ongoing Major Wars (i.e. with fatalities in excess of 10,000) this year.
In Part II, we will turn to all Wars (i.e. with fatalities in the range of 1,000 to 9,999) in 2023.
Hopefully, Dear Reader(s), you enjoyed the Gloom, Doom & Despair from this Compact Rundown of Global Conflict!
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Outstanding work here, giving an informed briefing woefully absent from the evening news.
Ah yes my second Doom (fate) Weaver.