Myanmar & The Future of Warfare

What we can Intuit about Global Conflict in the latter part of the 21st century

In this photo taken on March 8, 2023, members of the ethnic rebel group Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) take part in a training exercise at their base camp in the forest in Myanmar's northern Shan State.

Stringer/AFP/Getty Images

Source: https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/myanmar-shan-tnla-08252023085602.html

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At the end of last year, I covered briefly the Civil War in Myanmar, which (since its inception in 2021) had ravaged the Southeast Asian nation violently:

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Namely, I noted in my analysis back then the following regarding the war-torn nation:

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“As EAOs like the ‘Three Brotherhood Alliance’ make greater progress on the battlefield; Chinese fortunes in the region wane. Should the Junta government unravel in the coming months; it would be a significant blow to regional integration.

Then too; any coalition of EAOs (even if grassroots & genuine), should they triumph; would mean likewise the triumph of Western tinkering in India & China’s backyard.

For, any such future rebel government would ipso facto turn more to Western powers (primarily the US) to safeguard themselves from a future Chinese &/or Indian intervention to restore the Junta, & roll back pro-Western NLD influences.

At this moment in time, with over half of Myanmar contested, & the Junta government still possessing significant battlefield capabilities; perhaps this is a tad bit premature.

By mid to late 2024 however, should the current trend of ‘small brushfires’ continue; whereby EAOs Attrit away the myriad military outposts & assets dotting the Southeast Asian nation… things may become clearer for Analysts to determine the overall trend.”

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What has transpired in Myanmar has far surpassed expectations. Not only have the EAOs beaten back the ruling Military Junta on several vital axes, but there are now growing signs that the Junta government is on the verge of outright defeat.

To understand the implications of this, we need to briefly define these 'Ethnic Armed Organizations' (i.e., 'EAOs') & outline what their capabilities are (& aren't):

Firstly, several dozen such groups are presently operating inside Myanmar's borders. Here is a brief primer on some of the larger groups & their activities. 

Secondly, the actual ‘fighting unit’ for most of these organizations rarely goes bigger than platoons & companies for most operations. Instead, they operate more as cells comprising a handful of young men, sometimes as small as 3-7 men per cell. 

Third & Most Importantly, many of these EAOs utilize cheap, 'low-tech' methods & technologies. Many fighters can indigenously build their munitions, & then teach & transfer such skills reliably to other fighters very rapidly. 

Ipso Facto, the first two markers are of a standard insurgency with 20th-century guerrilla traits (i.e. 'small, nimble & numerous') in the words of Chairman Mao Zedong: 

"The guerrilla must move amongst the people as a fish swims in the sea."

However, there is a crucial differentiator, & that is brought about via the third & final marker. Traditionally, 20th-century insurgencies and their various guerilla tactics primarily relied heavily upon armaments and assistance from abroad.

Specifically, in the latter half of the 20th century, we see an emphasis by both the USSR & the USA (i.e., the Two Superpowers of that era) on arming & training sundry resistance fighters, rebels & related groups worldwide. 

Such was the 'Old World,' one which has, at last, been eclipsed:

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SOURCE: https://twitter.com/redstreamnet/status/1784256904958517390/photo/1

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Myanmar's sundry EAOs have demonstrated decisively that Resistance & Liberation movements worldwide no longer require the patronage of Great Powers. What they need instead is access to the know-how & expertise necessary to fight effectively:

Engineers with the relevant skillsets can today teach hordes of militiamen the requisite skills, tips & tricks required to build cheap, reliable & effective weapons systems. Gone are the days when one could only gain this info from state entities!

The Information Age has levelled the playing field considerably. A well-trained Black Hat hacker can today garner the requisite schematics necessary to build a wide range of weapons systems, & these, in turn, can be tweaked further: 

Missiles, Artillery, Drones, & Rockets (i.e. MADR) can be 'commodified' to the point where 'cheap knockoffs' & variants are engineered by a handful of weaponsmiths, who, via traditional apprenticeship, can spread said know-how to students. 

This creates a Grassroots, Organic network of information sharing whereby engineering expertise is made palatable & 'easy to understand' for frontline fighters. 

They, in turn, (given their small, cell-like structure & simplicity) can relay relevant feedback rapidly, allowing the engineers at the back to tweak & smelt as required. 

Thus, we get an accelerated 'learning curve,' whereby actual combat experience & battle harden these systems, men & munitions. With each iteration, know-how sharing & tweaking shape our initial MADR into reliable killing machines. 

In Haiti, we have already seen this accelerated 'learning curve' yield extraordinary results, considering the rag-tag nature of Haitian gangs:

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However, what is occurring in Myanmar is an order of magnitude more significant: 

Unlike Haiti's Security Apparatus, which has long been marred by procurement issues, corruption, and related woes, Myanmar's Junta government is a veritable 'Army with the organs of a State'—it is basically the 'Prussia of ASEAN.'

Yet it is precisely this Prussia of the Orient that is being bested presently!

Given how battlefield realities are rapidly developing in favour of the EAOs, many analysts are now alarmed, worrying out loud about the rapid, inevitable implosion of Myanmar & its aftermath. Time is fast running out:

The EAOs control large chunks of the countryside, including critical border checkpoints, villages, & towns. The Junta government is receding rapidly from these zones & is now isolated to the capital and nearby urban centres. 

As foes close in from all sides, the siege of Naypyidaw, the capital of the nation & the seat of Junta Power, Myanmar's neighbours watch with bated breath at what happens next, fully cognizant of the implications of what the EAOs & their triumph signify:

The era of *Small* is back. While not a full-fledged return to the Mediaeval era (& its sundry wandering legions of warrior knights), what awaits the latter three-quarters of the 21st century is a return to the 'Citizen Soldier,' but with some critical caveats. 

Namely, today's 'Citizen Soldier' is capable of arming himself with cheap, reliable, & deadly weapon systems & teaching others how to build, wield, tinker, & tweak them. 

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A fighter with Myanmar's Karen National Liberation Army carries an RPG launcher at a base on the outskirts of Myawaddy, the Thailand-Myanmar border town under the control of a coalition of rebel forces [Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters]

SOURCE: https://www.aljazeera.com/podcasts/2024/4/29/the-take-could-myanmars-coup-come-to-an-end

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He is, thus, more than just a 'Citizen Soldier.'

He can singlehandedly construct structures that can snowball into defeating whole nations & their sundry organs of power. Indeed, to snowball to that scale & scope, an entire team is needed, as well as the opportunity to learn, teach & transfer:

But once those are cleared, we get an organic 'bottom-up' architecture that gives even the strongest militaries on the planet a run for their money. As Philip Pilkington observed several months ago, 'The Shrinking Cost of War threatens Western Militaries.' 

Yet, is that all there is to this matter?

Is it all about microeconomic notions, such as Marginal Costs being pushed down in tandem with mass 'commodification' of munitions?

Or are there other relevant macro trends that need to be likewise considered?

It can be argued that what we are seeing are the preliminary signs of Military Activity mass-proliferating to the point where the common man sees it as ubiquitous. 

This ubiquity dissolves the boundaries between civilians, soldiers, officials, etc.  

Thus, 'Military Economics' is becoming commonplace where everyone, young & old, can participate in not just the 'backend' of things but the actual battlefield skirmishes & fighting, courtesy of a far lower 'barrier to entry.' 

In this New World, a 12-year-old who would generally throw a Rock or a Molotov Cocktail at a 5+ million USD Merkava Tank has far better options.

He can instead operate a Joker-10 Drone copycat, which in turn can mount a 4.5 kg TBG-7V Thermobaric load:

He can then maneuver said cheap knockoff with the Thermobaric & crash into one of various chinks in the Merkava's armour, detonating it at point black range to kill & wound everyone onboard:

All this for the paltry cost of sub-300 USD, mainly using scavenged junk...

The DOOM cometh...! 

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