Haiti has Fallen... The Death of a Nation

Why it Matters, & Why You Dear Reader, should pay attention to Haiti's DOOM

Police on patrol in Port-au-Prince on Friday. Photograph: Ralph Tedy Erol/Reuters.

The nation is in turmoil as its sundry Criminal Gangs have seized critical parts of the nation’s infrastructure, government, law enforcement & related installations. A total collapse nears as the incumbent Prime Minister Ariel Henry (who was overseas when the chaos unfolded) remains stranded & unable to return home.

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Some three months or so ago, I did my Global Conflict series, which looked at Armed Conflicts worldwide and gave a general assessment of where things stood at the end of 2023 and going into the New Year of 2024. Haiti was covered in [Part II] of said series:

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Specifically, here are some of the relevant tidbits that I gleaned from my analysis at Year’s End regarding the Island nation’s fate going into the New Year of 2024:

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“A Kenya-led “multinational security support mission” was authorized in October to deal with this escalating violence. But so far, nothing concrete has come off of that yet. In the meantime, the violence has surged & escalated in troubling ways:

Lynchings are on the rise. Diplomatic quarters (such as the US Embassy) have come under attack regularly; prompting embassy staff to go on lockdown.

If this conflict escalates further, the neighbouring Caribbean may soon find a proliferation of aforementioned gang alliances in their territories.

The migration waves this would generate; & the scale & scope of the fallout given the Southern Border’s already sorry state… is quite sobering to contemplate.

In effect then, early to mid-2024 will be the “Las Chance” for many to do something about Gang warfare in Haiti. For, afterwards, the conflict will escalate & turn into a full-blown Humanitarian crisis, spreading to the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.

The United States would be the primary recipient of the aforementioned crisis’ Woes, as violent criminals (from said gang alliances & related movements) make landfall.

Until US policy-makers take Haiti seriously & attempt to sincerely resolve hostilities in the island nation; trouble may soon come a bit too close to home for comfort.”

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Ladies & Gentlemen… The DOOM has arrived.

While it is unclear what the *exact* 'facts on the ground' are presently, what is clear is that most of what I had foreseen at the end of 2023 is now coming to pass: 

Namely, the sundry gang alliances in the nation have (at least for the time being) set aside their differences and pitched a 'United Front' of some sort. We are now seeing the results of that unified, all-out assault on the organs of 'state power.' 

The situation is dire. What we are seeing are Sub-state actors overthrowing LIVE a nation's government using crude, cheap & easy to acquire weaponry. Essentially, this is courtesy of the shrinking costs of warfare, foreshadowed by many for quite some time. 

Thus, we are on the cusp of a Revolution in warfare… on the 'low tech' side: 

Suppose a rag-tag group of lightly armed gangs can now successfully overthrow a government using primarily cheap weaponry, much of which is indigenously procured & built. Haiti's tragedy seems to have proven this. 

If so, the contagion will spread to the Rest of the Northern Hemisphere…

…the crown jewel of which is The United States of America. 

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Pedestrians run for cover after hearing gunshots in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Thursday, March 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Odelyn Joseph)

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Let me be clear… I am not saying Civil War v2.0 will break out courtesy of Haiti’s tragedy. (If it does… even I would be genuinely taken aback!)

What I am saying, Dear Readers, is that this collapse of Haitian society will embolden criminal elements across the Northern Hemisphere, especially those who have for years infiltrated into the United States using the porous Southern Border.

These criminal elements, whose cells are spread across the Continental United States in sundry pockets (many of which are in the various Inner Cities & nearby counties), will begin to activate en masse in the coming weeks & months courtesy of Haiti’s Fall:

The reason is that these events have now sent them a de facto signal, namely that the powers of state & government writ large, with all its sundry tools (surveillance, institutions, law enforcement, etc.), are ultimately incapable of the basics…

… preventing young, ambitious, ruthless men from seizing power by force.

Historically, polities (empires, nation-states, etc.) have used various methods, lures & ways to keep said men from engaging in organized violence *at scale*.

In the so-called ‘First World’ nations of the West (especially the United States of America), this has been accomplished historically via mass incarceration, surveillance & an emphasis on Kinetics by law enforcement & related bodies.

But the Haiti collapse has shown that such systems & structures can be stretched to the limit using a wide variety of methods ‘spaced out’ at the right tempo & pace:

So long as the ‘fishing net’ of surveillance, law enforcement & other methods is spread out… it will always have holes in it through which smaller fish can pass easily. Once the smaller fish aggregate en masse & muster for collective action…

…we get total system failure (as we see now happening LIVE in Haiti).

Multiple small ‘brushfires’ that pop up across the Continental United States, in & around the Inner cities especially… will be fatal. These places do not have sufficient personnel (police, military, etc.) to garrison these areas sufficiently:

Given a ‘Haiti scenario’ of a prominent, densely populated place like Chicago having mass violence erupt in several dozen parts of the city per some loosely knit ‘temporary alliance of convenience’ among gangs & criminal elements…

…Chicago police will be unable to stop the inevitable descent into anarchy. 

Once that fire is lit, the rest of the country may suffer similar 'small brushfires.' That is precisely what the Haitian gangs pursued. Namely a stratagem of 'overload & confuse.' 

If so, The Continental United States would be burning from 'Sea to Shining Sea.'

Haiti's descent, therefore, is critical, for it is a harbinger of what is to come.

Namely, it is a LIVE playing out of 'How to overthrow a Government... using a rag-tag group of criminals & gang members.' America, which has several million such criminals & gang members out loose presently, is exceptionally vulnerable. 

Haiti's demise is painful & tragic. However, the criminal elements mentioned earlier view it as a signal to arms. Here, at last, is evidence for what it is many of their strategists & intelligentsia have said for several decades at length: 

Large State actors (like the USA) have bureaucratic inertia & far too much 'attention spread out everywhere diffusely.' They lack the methods to 'net in' the small fish who aggregate en masse & strike asymmetrically in unison.  

We may see that the United States of America will soon become the 'testing ground' for this hypothesis.

The DOOM cometh!

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