Eurabia & Eurafrica are inevitable. Once NATO crumbles, the Scramble will begin... first as a small trickle & then over several decades it will turn into a flood.
Europe committed suicide after Obama and Merkel convinced it to take in hordes of Muslims which hate and outbreed them. Demographics is destiny and it’s easy to predict what will happen when you stop having children but your enemies don’t.
Europe is in a state of delusion. They’ve defanged their militaries and societies, making themselves depending on Russian energy, all while expecting the US to foot the bill for their defense. Thankfully those days are over. Sadly I don’t think most of Europe is savable. Time to hunker down in the final bastion of freedom, the USA.
I don't see anyone saving Europe from their self-destructive inclinations.
I also don't see the European right forging any real strategy for a European revival.
They want fancy slogans,not any genuine or effective solutions.
As long as swaths of Europeans adopt their anti-islamic slogans,that's all that really matter. The pleasure of blindly swinging their sword against the 'Islamic threat' far outweigh the less exciting alternatives of close border policies and reindustrialization.
The moment things get slightly 'heated' they emigrate en masse & then cry & moan about their 'conquered homelands' from their new lodgings many miles away.
These are not serious people. Ultimately, Land trumps race & people who stay & fight, struggle, etc... will simply best those who claim that by lineage & blood alone, they are somehow entitled to the riches & bounties of a specific land.
> Thus, America is telling the world *in action & deed* that it is abandoning Europe.
That's not what happened. What happened is that America decided it's going to turn EU into a colony, and exploit it like a proper colony is exploited, and then it told EU in action & deed to get itself some stable governments with democratic mandates, so that there'll be no popular uprisings once the exploitation starts.
That might be what they wish to do (at least some of the leadership class), but more likely is the following outcome:
The 60,000 or so 🇺🇸 forces in 🇪🇺 will be withdrawn due to the unravelling of the debt situation. & Vance’s speech about “you guys having all these internal issues & you’re not true to what you stand for”… sounded to me like a very good preliminary excuse to begin said retreat (which will be forced via financial & other realities upon 🇺🇸 hegemon 😉)
I spent a little time this morning thinking about your wording about "invading" Europe. :) Even while Europe has, how many, 100,000 soldiers all together, how exactly are all those Africans going to cross the Mediterranian? No, seriously. How are they going to stage an amphibious invasion of Europe? xD With what ships? And how are they going to cross the Sahara? People of West Asia might be more able to, but then again have we forgotten just how shitty Arab armies are?
There's not going to be an "invasion", but as long as European countries indiscriminately allow immigration, the number of immigrants will swell. Obviously. And once they stop taking them in, they'll stop coming. And that will be it. Those already present will generally remain, I expect they will get crushed and psychologycally broken and given menial jobs, because that's kind of what Europeans do to each other so why not do the same to immigrants? But an "invasion" of defenceless Europe, and getting one's hands on it's supple nubile children? The Rest would need to develop a comparative advantage over Europe akin to what the Industrial Revolution gave to Europeans in the 19th century.
About that. "Scramble for Europe"? I presume that's in analogy to "Scramble for Africa", but the problem with that analogy is that "Europe" has been trying to invade Africa since the 15th century and for 4 centuries they were unable to do anything serious. After a few centuries of trying, Portugal managed to take over an already existing state in modern Mozambique, but that's the maximum. And then they got in, but why? How? What enabled it? The Industrial Revolution enabled it. Europeans got lucky with Americas because the diseasses they brought killed off 90% of the continent and then Euros got to expand through a literal post-apocaliptic wasteland. And then Americas kicked Euros out and lived on on their own (AKA colonies declared independence). Then for some 30-40 years in the first half of the 19th century no European power had ANY colonies ANYWHERE. If not for the Industrial Revolution, that would have been it.
I know you're a DOOM merchant, but it does help to temper your wares. :) Those already in will likely remain - unless Europe decides to undergo 10 years of brutal house-to-house warfare (it probably won't) - and new ones will continue arriving as long as they are allowed to by the hosts. Now, if Europeans trully don't have any self-preservation intact then they'll continue allowing immigration for decades, until the new arrivals forbid further immigration themselves. And if they discover they have some of that instict left, they'll stop the immigration earlier. Either way, there'll be no amphibious invasion by unified peoples of Africa or West Asia against Europe. And there'll be no "Scramble for Europe". It's going to be an American colony for at least the next 20 years and after that we'll see.
Also, don’t underestimate low technology, commodified solutions to shipping and related matters. It merely needs to “do the job.”
In the year 2125, with deindustrialization being the norm, and navies of the past being a distant memory… I have no doubt in my mind that the “invasion” will be done mostly via these low technology ships that have been scavenged.
As Europe fragments from the ethnic and religious tension from these armies of men already inside, coupled with these invasions of cheap conmodified armies of men several decades later… it will cease to exist as a civilizational and historical force.
As the Grandmaster has said before: this is a normal state of affairs in most of human history. Societies think “we will never be overcome because of x,y and z”… until it happens. 😉
I imagined you'll give the argument of "but there's already millions of them inside! \o/", like so many others do. Have you considered the attrition rate these "armies" will sustain? And have you considered that they aren't actually trained soldiers fighting for a clear goal, but are instead civilians who just want to live a nice life?
Prove to me they aren't just trying to live an easy life. That doesn't exclude they're able to commit serious violence when cornered, but did they come to Europe to rape pillage and burn, or did they come to enjoy a nice life? *How compatible are their life goals with 10 years of house-to-house combat?*
But the key question is, have you considered their attrition rate? *Are they going to put up with it?* It's easy for you to write "oh muh guyz are gonna pwn your guyz!", while sitting in a nice comfy home in Pakistan or wherever, but have you actually considered what will be the real life of those supposed "invaders"? You DO understand that they'll have to stand vigil, and make patrols around their building blocks? You DO understand their kids and wives will get killed in droves, just as they kill the kids and wives of the natives? Do you understand that, while you egg them on from half a world away, they'll be counting the few remaining bullets they have constantly worried somebody will lose his temper and hit them with howitzers?
It's really cute and endearing that every few months a psycho runs his car through a town fair, or else kills a bunch of people with a knife, but if this ever gets as common as it would be in an "invasion" There's Going To Be Repercussions! And it doesn't help "invaders" literally can't hide because they LOOK different.
I spent a lot of time here convincing "rightwingers" there will be no mass deportations because there's no historical precedent of more than ~2% of people being deported without a major war. With the assumption Europeans won't be doing that, because they can't stomach the attrition. But the literal exact same arguments go in the opposite direction. Prove to me all these immigrants are willing to accept a 30%+ attrition rate over a decade.
> Also, don’t underestimate low technology, commodified solutions to shipping and related matters. It merely needs to “do the job.”
As I said, Europeans have been on it for 4 centuries, using the means not worse than what you propose, and the only thing the accomplished were trading posts.
> In the year 2125, with deindustrialization being the norm, and navies of the past being a distant memory…
This appears to be quite an extrapolation. You've been consuming too many of your DOOM wares. :) India is an example of what might be considered a "deindustrialized" economy. Can you really imagine a stream of "armies of young men" - all of them for some reason unarmed - coming into deindustrialized India and making it "cease to be a civilizational and historical force"? No? Then how can you imagine the same happening to Europe?
Addendum: The welfare states will eventually run out of money, causing mass emigration waves of Black, Brown & White working age men & families. However, the criminals & underclass will remain.
Afterward, later on in the century due to the weakening of the AMOC & other causal factors... hordes of Migrants from Sub Saharan Africa & MENA will move to Europe to look for Freshwater & Arable Land.
That (in a nutshell) is my prognosis.
I'll expand upon it in greater detail in my essay 'The Next 100 Years: Predicting 2025-2125' where I outline some of the key causal factors at play. But in general, the 'Mediterranean Sea' is a non-existent barrier given Turkey & other entrypoints into the Old Peninsula... which will soon be incapable of defending itself courtesy of quantity disparities, coupled with the fall in the qualitative gap (as I noted with the CEV changes below).
Today there are 2 Africans for every 1 European. Once you check the numbers for 2050, the ratio rises to 4:1, and for 2100 it becomes 7:1.
As for casualty ratios…. I used line of best fit and other normalisation metrics to study all the wars involving Europeans and Africans from the scramble for Africa beginning in 1870 to the present day where mercenary armies do most of the fighting for the Europeans.
The initial ratio was 1 to 2.5 favouring Europe, meaning (if you square that) 6 to 7 African casualties per European casualty at the beginning of the scramble, when there were 4 Europeans alive per African.
Today the number is 1.4 to 1.5 in favour of Europe, and by mid century it will fall to below that… meaning (if you square that) at most ~2 African casualties per European… while 4 Africans are alive per European circa 2050.
Yeah. Europe is dead 😉
Listen to the episode we did with Sir Cleveland and Sir Aspen, where I bring these numbers up around the 40-minute mark. 😊
As I already mentioned twice, the scramble for Africa was a product of the Industrial Revolution. Africa/West Asia would need to generate a comparable advantage to be able to perform a scramble for Europe. Without that advantage, Africa was perfectly capable of resisting Europeans (and West Asians and South Asians, I should add - let's not forget that) for centuries.
The fact you use numbers puts you in a higher leage than other commentatons who don't add or multiply.
I would nevertheless severely caution against projecting the fertility numbers uncritically. The population disruption brought about by the Industrial Revolution - that spread out in a wave throughout the entire planet, finally reaching Africa a few decades ago - is not done yet. We simply don't know what will happen to fertility in Europe. Previous statistics (the one which say no previous people with this low fertility survived) are of very limited use as none of them were brought about by the Industrial Revolution and it's peculiar coctail of factors. Humanity is currently in uncharted waters, and blindly extrapolating is fraught with peril. Do so at your own risk.
love the title yes it is irrelevant
No, Vance was warning Europe about its potential fate. Whether Europe heeds his warning is still TBD.
Too late.
Eurabia & Eurafrica are inevitable. Once NATO crumbles, the Scramble will begin... first as a small trickle & then over several decades it will turn into a flood.
Europe committed suicide after Obama and Merkel convinced it to take in hordes of Muslims which hate and outbreed them. Demographics is destiny and it’s easy to predict what will happen when you stop having children but your enemies don’t.
Europe is in a state of delusion. They’ve defanged their militaries and societies, making themselves depending on Russian energy, all while expecting the US to foot the bill for their defense. Thankfully those days are over. Sadly I don’t think most of Europe is savable. Time to hunker down in the final bastion of freedom, the USA.
America will do better than Europe, but that's not saying much. 😉
Anyhow, I for one, welcome Eurafrica & Eurabia! 🥰
I don't see anyone saving Europe from their self-destructive inclinations.
I also don't see the European right forging any real strategy for a European revival.
They want fancy slogans,not any genuine or effective solutions.
As long as swaths of Europeans adopt their anti-islamic slogans,that's all that really matter. The pleasure of blindly swinging their sword against the 'Islamic threat' far outweigh the less exciting alternatives of close border policies and reindustrialization.
They are LARP-ers.
The moment things get slightly 'heated' they emigrate en masse & then cry & moan about their 'conquered homelands' from their new lodgings many miles away.
These are not serious people. Ultimately, Land trumps race & people who stay & fight, struggle, etc... will simply best those who claim that by lineage & blood alone, they are somehow entitled to the riches & bounties of a specific land.
> Thus, America is telling the world *in action & deed* that it is abandoning Europe.
That's not what happened. What happened is that America decided it's going to turn EU into a colony, and exploit it like a proper colony is exploited, and then it told EU in action & deed to get itself some stable governments with democratic mandates, so that there'll be no popular uprisings once the exploitation starts.
That might be what they wish to do (at least some of the leadership class), but more likely is the following outcome:
The 60,000 or so 🇺🇸 forces in 🇪🇺 will be withdrawn due to the unravelling of the debt situation. & Vance’s speech about “you guys having all these internal issues & you’re not true to what you stand for”… sounded to me like a very good preliminary excuse to begin said retreat (which will be forced via financial & other realities upon 🇺🇸 hegemon 😉)
I spent a little time this morning thinking about your wording about "invading" Europe. :) Even while Europe has, how many, 100,000 soldiers all together, how exactly are all those Africans going to cross the Mediterranian? No, seriously. How are they going to stage an amphibious invasion of Europe? xD With what ships? And how are they going to cross the Sahara? People of West Asia might be more able to, but then again have we forgotten just how shitty Arab armies are?
There's not going to be an "invasion", but as long as European countries indiscriminately allow immigration, the number of immigrants will swell. Obviously. And once they stop taking them in, they'll stop coming. And that will be it. Those already present will generally remain, I expect they will get crushed and psychologycally broken and given menial jobs, because that's kind of what Europeans do to each other so why not do the same to immigrants? But an "invasion" of defenceless Europe, and getting one's hands on it's supple nubile children? The Rest would need to develop a comparative advantage over Europe akin to what the Industrial Revolution gave to Europeans in the 19th century.
About that. "Scramble for Europe"? I presume that's in analogy to "Scramble for Africa", but the problem with that analogy is that "Europe" has been trying to invade Africa since the 15th century and for 4 centuries they were unable to do anything serious. After a few centuries of trying, Portugal managed to take over an already existing state in modern Mozambique, but that's the maximum. And then they got in, but why? How? What enabled it? The Industrial Revolution enabled it. Europeans got lucky with Americas because the diseasses they brought killed off 90% of the continent and then Euros got to expand through a literal post-apocaliptic wasteland. And then Americas kicked Euros out and lived on on their own (AKA colonies declared independence). Then for some 30-40 years in the first half of the 19th century no European power had ANY colonies ANYWHERE. If not for the Industrial Revolution, that would have been it.
I know you're a DOOM merchant, but it does help to temper your wares. :) Those already in will likely remain - unless Europe decides to undergo 10 years of brutal house-to-house warfare (it probably won't) - and new ones will continue arriving as long as they are allowed to by the hosts. Now, if Europeans trully don't have any self-preservation intact then they'll continue allowing immigration for decades, until the new arrivals forbid further immigration themselves. And if they discover they have some of that instict left, they'll stop the immigration earlier. Either way, there'll be no amphibious invasion by unified peoples of Africa or West Asia against Europe. And there'll be no "Scramble for Europe". It's going to be an American colony for at least the next 20 years and after that we'll see.
Two points:
1) Armies of young men are already inside
2) There is a land route via 🇹🇷
Also, don’t underestimate low technology, commodified solutions to shipping and related matters. It merely needs to “do the job.”
In the year 2125, with deindustrialization being the norm, and navies of the past being a distant memory… I have no doubt in my mind that the “invasion” will be done mostly via these low technology ships that have been scavenged.
As Europe fragments from the ethnic and religious tension from these armies of men already inside, coupled with these invasions of cheap conmodified armies of men several decades later… it will cease to exist as a civilizational and historical force.
As the Grandmaster has said before: this is a normal state of affairs in most of human history. Societies think “we will never be overcome because of x,y and z”… until it happens. 😉
I imagined you'll give the argument of "but there's already millions of them inside! \o/", like so many others do. Have you considered the attrition rate these "armies" will sustain? And have you considered that they aren't actually trained soldiers fighting for a clear goal, but are instead civilians who just want to live a nice life?
Prove to me they aren't just trying to live an easy life. That doesn't exclude they're able to commit serious violence when cornered, but did they come to Europe to rape pillage and burn, or did they come to enjoy a nice life? *How compatible are their life goals with 10 years of house-to-house combat?*
But the key question is, have you considered their attrition rate? *Are they going to put up with it?* It's easy for you to write "oh muh guyz are gonna pwn your guyz!", while sitting in a nice comfy home in Pakistan or wherever, but have you actually considered what will be the real life of those supposed "invaders"? You DO understand that they'll have to stand vigil, and make patrols around their building blocks? You DO understand their kids and wives will get killed in droves, just as they kill the kids and wives of the natives? Do you understand that, while you egg them on from half a world away, they'll be counting the few remaining bullets they have constantly worried somebody will lose his temper and hit them with howitzers?
It's really cute and endearing that every few months a psycho runs his car through a town fair, or else kills a bunch of people with a knife, but if this ever gets as common as it would be in an "invasion" There's Going To Be Repercussions! And it doesn't help "invaders" literally can't hide because they LOOK different.
I spent a lot of time here convincing "rightwingers" there will be no mass deportations because there's no historical precedent of more than ~2% of people being deported without a major war. With the assumption Europeans won't be doing that, because they can't stomach the attrition. But the literal exact same arguments go in the opposite direction. Prove to me all these immigrants are willing to accept a 30%+ attrition rate over a decade.
> Also, don’t underestimate low technology, commodified solutions to shipping and related matters. It merely needs to “do the job.”
As I said, Europeans have been on it for 4 centuries, using the means not worse than what you propose, and the only thing the accomplished were trading posts.
> In the year 2125, with deindustrialization being the norm, and navies of the past being a distant memory…
This appears to be quite an extrapolation. You've been consuming too many of your DOOM wares. :) India is an example of what might be considered a "deindustrialized" economy. Can you really imagine a stream of "armies of young men" - all of them for some reason unarmed - coming into deindustrialized India and making it "cease to be a civilizational and historical force"? No? Then how can you imagine the same happening to Europe?
Addendum: The welfare states will eventually run out of money, causing mass emigration waves of Black, Brown & White working age men & families. However, the criminals & underclass will remain.
Afterward, later on in the century due to the weakening of the AMOC & other causal factors... hordes of Migrants from Sub Saharan Africa & MENA will move to Europe to look for Freshwater & Arable Land.
That (in a nutshell) is my prognosis.
I'll expand upon it in greater detail in my essay 'The Next 100 Years: Predicting 2025-2125' where I outline some of the key causal factors at play. But in general, the 'Mediterranean Sea' is a non-existent barrier given Turkey & other entrypoints into the Old Peninsula... which will soon be incapable of defending itself courtesy of quantity disparities, coupled with the fall in the qualitative gap (as I noted with the CEV changes below).
Let me put it to you this way:
Today there are 2 Africans for every 1 European. Once you check the numbers for 2050, the ratio rises to 4:1, and for 2100 it becomes 7:1.
As for casualty ratios…. I used line of best fit and other normalisation metrics to study all the wars involving Europeans and Africans from the scramble for Africa beginning in 1870 to the present day where mercenary armies do most of the fighting for the Europeans.
The initial ratio was 1 to 2.5 favouring Europe, meaning (if you square that) 6 to 7 African casualties per European casualty at the beginning of the scramble, when there were 4 Europeans alive per African.
Today the number is 1.4 to 1.5 in favour of Europe, and by mid century it will fall to below that… meaning (if you square that) at most ~2 African casualties per European… while 4 Africans are alive per European circa 2050.
Yeah. Europe is dead 😉
Listen to the episode we did with Sir Cleveland and Sir Aspen, where I bring these numbers up around the 40-minute mark. 😊
As I already mentioned twice, the scramble for Africa was a product of the Industrial Revolution. Africa/West Asia would need to generate a comparable advantage to be able to perform a scramble for Europe. Without that advantage, Africa was perfectly capable of resisting Europeans (and West Asians and South Asians, I should add - let's not forget that) for centuries.
The fact you use numbers puts you in a higher leage than other commentatons who don't add or multiply.
I would nevertheless severely caution against projecting the fertility numbers uncritically. The population disruption brought about by the Industrial Revolution - that spread out in a wave throughout the entire planet, finally reaching Africa a few decades ago - is not done yet. We simply don't know what will happen to fertility in Europe. Previous statistics (the one which say no previous people with this low fertility survived) are of very limited use as none of them were brought about by the Industrial Revolution and it's peculiar coctail of factors. Humanity is currently in uncharted waters, and blindly extrapolating is fraught with peril. Do so at your own risk.