Russia, China & The United States of America
Russia, China & The United States of America
The Triumvirate of World Order: Its Total Collapse & The Inevitable World War
Diplomatic summit, digital painting, international conference hall, flags, diverse suits, tense mood, trilateral talks.
The End of the Global Triarchy & Its Fallout
1. The current Geopolitical Calculus: American retreat
Defeated US troops, digital art, deserted battlefield, dusk, muted earth tones, solemn mood, abandoned equipment.
The post-1991 Word Order is all but Moribund. What replaces it is still unclear:
American Seapower, the critical pillar keeping Global Shipping running on time (safe & sound), is Buckling rapidly. Yemen's Ansarallah has shown that gone are the days when large navies are needed to control Shipping Lanes:
Given some relatively cheap weaponry, the correct placement of forces & adequate ability to Harass shippers (thereby making insurance rates spike), even the Poorest of nations can now render the Hegemon's navy impotent.
Gone are the days when parties (commercial, state, etc.) could rely upon American Carrier battle groups to guarantee safe passage through Global waterways.
We have, in effect, gone back to an 'earlier world' (at least, for the time being) when various 'Trolls under the bridge' had to be paid off for safe passage. Essentially, the 'Ocean Mafia' is back, as American power Shamefully retreats from the High Seas.
However, understanding the implications of all this is non-existent in Western intelligentsia. The various 'intellectuals' in said nations continue discussing Domestic issues (such as inflation, energy prices, etc.), missing the Whole Point:
If the United States of America cannot stop Ansarallah from enacting a de facto Blockade in the Red Sea, then it cannot Ipso Facto prevent the same from being done elsewhere in the world. This weakness means a Carte Blanche for its enemies!
Suppose Iran wishes to Blockade the Straits of Hormuz & even Mine it! In that case, the Americans have shown (via their lack of action against Ansarallah) that the 5th fleet & others are utterly Impotent in preventing such a Calamitous blow to Global Trade.
The Pacific theatre is, therefore, all but lost. American allies (i.e., Taiwan, South Korea & Japan) are paying attention & they do not like what they see- whatever 'assurances' the Americans have given them are Moot. All evidence now points to the obvious:
Should hostilities break out against China &/or the DPRK, the USN will not be 'coming to the rescue.' Instead, the more likely outcome will be a Cannibalization of resources by US War Planners so that other fronts in WW III can be 'plugged.'
This outcome will mean an almost non-existent umbrella of US force posture in the region once said foes make their moves.
Indeed, the Americans will put up some Resistance. But this will mean inevitable defeat against the Escalation Dominance of DPRK & the Chinese.
Attempts will be made by said Planners to 'rescue' the various 'Tripwire' forces based overseas. However, sufficient resources will not arrive on time, nor in the suitable Scale & scope. Imperial overstretch will be the main culprit to blame.
The US cannot replenish nor Build certain things anymore (Drydocks, for instance!) due to de-industrialization, brain drain, supply-chain complexification, etc.
Therefore, Cannibalization from Imperial overstretch on multiple fronts will mean rapid Exhaustion of conventional capabilities.
A Nuclear Bias in Military Planning & execution is the natural result of all this:
The relationship between The United States of America and other nations is thus rapidly deteriorating. As it increasingly becomes a more Pariahic State, whose finger on the Nuclear trigger shortens by the day, the Global Triarchy is buckling.
In particular, the triangular relationship between Russia (i.e., Land), China (i.e., Labour) & the United States (i.e., Capital) has now fallen apart.
War is thus all but Inevitable!
2. Russian Ascension: By Blood & Iron awakens The Bear!
Tanks in snow, digital art, Siberian landscape, blizzard conditions, muted whites and greys, harsh mood, military maneuver.
As the American Eagle retreats, the Russian Bear advances! Ukraine, the best proxy ever concocted by the former, is hanging on for dear life. NATO weaponry, primarily comprising American munitions, has decisively run dry.
Congress may yet sign off on a new batch of munitions worth tens of billions of dollars. However, it will be 'a dollar short and a day late.'
Russian forces have already attrited most of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, thereby making any new batch of weaponry pointless! There isn't sufficient Manpower left to use whatever gets sent over. Those Ukrainian boys were killed en masse long ago.
What's worse- women, teens & seniors are now being Conscripted en masse to be the 'meat shield' necessary to Hold the line. Their training is scant & their morale is non-existent. Additionally, the lack of NATO weaponry prevails throughout the front.
Essentially, the Ukrainians are running on Borrowed Time. Such a Spent Force will buckle sometime in 2024, albeit it is difficult to pinpoint what specific date this will occur. Analysts have said mid to late 2024 is when Ukraine's Implosion will occur:
This projection is from a)Stockpiles of Artillery, Missiles, Armour, etc., leftover & b)Assuming Russian offensives in the Summer & winter. The 'facts on the ground' have yet to be known well enough to determine whether this will pan out, so we wait for now.
What is known for sure is this:
Russia will emerge from this Special Military Operation (SMO) stronger than she had entered it. & she will exact a Heavy Price from those nations she considers 'Unfriendly.' When this occurs (with Force), the architecture of the EU & NATO will buckle.
Europe is already a basket case due to rising energy prices, munitions attrited to meager numbers, etc. Russia will 'negotiate' that Europe commits Assisted Suicide.
If it does not pursue Euthanasia, Europe will have to deal with the 'New Normal' of increased Domestic turmoil, fragmentation, loss of living standards, domestic terrorism (especially from far-right groups), & so on. That, or accept Russia's role as a Great Power.
It's easy to see where the 'Chips will likely fall!'
Once the European vassals inevitably 'bend the knee' &/or destroy themselves, America (already weakened & vulnerable) will find itself de facto friendless in most of the world:
The Chinese 'wised up' long ago when the Americans attempted to provoke Domestic chaos in the Mainland by backing the Hong Kong protests, Taiwanese separatism, etc.
The Russians learned the hard way that their 'American partners' sought to turn Ukraine into a Battering Ram to 'bust in' Russia's vulnerable Western flank.
The Islamic world is learning via an ongoing genocide that Americans (& Westerners in general) pay mere lip service to 'Human rights & International Law,' & only when it suits them to look down on others & deny them basic humanity.
Latin America is ravaged regularly by various three-letter agencies & their numerous raids, coup d'états, etc. 'Experience' has taught them all about what the Americans are all about. They do not need further 'examples' to know the Pariah State's tendencies.
The African states mirror the Latin American experience significantly.
As for the Indic world, significant fissures have yet to manifest openly, but they are in the process of taking shape:
India's 'Human rights record' is being regularly targeted by Western NGOs. It is only a matter of time until some form of 'Domestic tinkering' is given the green light.
That leaves us with Oceania & the Europeans.
Should the latter predictably Disintegrate in the manner above to Russia's Re-emergence as A Great Power, the Americans can only look to Oceania.
Quite the abysmal prospect!
Therefore, Russia is inadvertently best positioned to take advantage of America's retreat from the High Seas as it becomes a Great Power with ample sway on the Overland Trade Routes. Especially now as Eurasian integration rapidly converges.
3. The Dragon prowls, but When will it decide to Act?
Troop march, photograph, Tiananmen Square, bright day, crisp uniforms, proud mood, disciplined formations.
China remains (for the moment) distant from the various Hotspots of Conflict worldwide. When the Russians launched their SMO in February 2022, there were widespread fears in the West that the Chinese would provide substantial aid.
No such move took place for a myriad of reasons:
For one, the Chinese people themselves do not wish for war. Therefore, Aid to Russia has been primarily Diplomatic, Moral & humanitarian.
More importantly, Taiwan is of considerably greater importance to the Chinese public (& leadership). China has emerged as one of the Great Powers on the World Stage. However, Taiwan remains a thorn in the Calculus of Chinese leadership:
The island acts today as a de facto base for the American Navy & its vassals. American 'advisors' have frequented the island with increasing frequency & in more significant numbers yearly. The Chinese are not stupid; they see what is going on here.
The objective the Americans are trying to pursue is outright secession for the breakaway rebel province. Should they succeed, the very territorial integrity of the Mainland is questioned, as other parts of the country will take heed of the matter.
In particular, Xinjiang & Tibet may both pursue 'independence.'
Taiwan, therefore, is critical. It needs to be 'brought back into the fold' & quickly. The Chinese leadership is well aware that the Americans are trying to encourage the island to pursue full-fledged 'independence' & are trying their utmost to prevent that.
Time, however, is essential. American Soft Power remains significant despite the USA's other woes (i.e., in industry, manufacturing, etc.). It is only a matter of time until the situation comes to a head. Most likely, it will be in the coming months!
The rapid collapse of American deterrence in West Asia is thus a welcome development for the Chinese.
Now that it has become clear that the Hegemon can no longer keep World Trade secure & that its expensive Carrier battle groups are pretty useless:
The implication is that the US Navy will be likewise impotent when it comes to stopping swarms of cheap Drones, Artillery & missiles buffeting the Taiwanese, owing to its inability to do much against swarm tactics using very affordable munitions.
China (should it succeed in taking Taiwan) would have the architecture to manufacture materials, semiconductors, etc., surpassing the Americans in critical areas.
The 'Triangular balance' would once more buckle from this geopolitical earthquake.
In this scenario, China would close the 'Capital' gap with the Americans, while the Russians (in successfully concluding their SMO) would close off the 'Labour' gap.
This 'rejuvenation' of its foes is an utter disaster for a Former Superpower on the retreat everywhere. Given its waning capabilities to conduct Conventional Warfare & its increased Nuclear Bias when it comes to Military matters:
It is all but sure that the Americans will have to Strike Hard & strike First. No other strategy will salvage the situation for them.
'Diplomacy' died long ago. By its actions, the Americans have turned themselves into Violent Pariahs who are utterly friendless. 'International isolation' will only accelerate, & the Americans & vassals will only continue to increase their wanton Violence.
It has not come to the point where a coalition of most of the world's nations openly seeks the complete Annihilation of this Violent Pariah & its vassals. But this is now the general direction of travel, given the madness pursued by American 'leadership.'
& so we get closer to that moment where America, cornered & vulnerable, finally snaps & decides to Strike Hard & strike First.
& What better First Strike than the one that produces Mushroom Clouds?
4. Concluding Remarks: Nuclear War is Inevitable
Mushroom cloud, digital art, Moscow skyline, ominous twilight, dark palette, catastrophic mood, towering explosion.
We discussed at length in this essay the coming Inevitable collapse of the Triumvirate of World Order. America's follies have played a vital role in this collapse.
We touched upon the American retreat, the Russian reawakening & the Chinese emergence. All of this, when pieced together & looked at Holistically, makes it clear what the following sequence of events will be:
The Americans, bereft of Conventional capabilities (for reasons noted earlier), are cornered. Forced Checkmate on the geopolitical chessboard looms closer as the 'Mating net' closes in. & so, the military leadership will pursue 'playing for the draw.'
Which neatly translates to realizing ‘Mutually Assured Destruction.’
America will simply be doing what it, as a Nuclear-Armed Great power, was always going to do in its moment of Existential Crisis.
However, using WMDs to try & stave off said Forced Checkmate is simply Evil & antihuman. It appears, however, that American 'leadership' is Hellbent on seeing this pursuit come to fruition. They haven't listened to Reason in the past, so it is unlikely that this time will differ.
Unfortunately, for the rest of us, this means that a Nuclear Hellscape is Imminent...
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The US has a nuclear bias and as you've observed it's conventional means of dominance have dwindled, but so to has its nuclear capability. It's silos of ICBMs have been neglected and with the Brits failure to launch a trident one wonders how effective their sub fleet would be. Maintenance personnel, engineering capability of "legacy" systems is apparently MIA. The wonders of financial engineering. So in terms of proportional effect I've seen it argued that US and Europe would be definitely terminated with extreme prejudice, Russia would sustain substantial but survivable losses. And if this assessment is wrong no problem - we won't be around for recriminations. So, I agree it's not Israel's Sampson option but the US/UK worshipers of Mamon/Maloch.
"Russian Ascension: By Blood & Iron awakens The Bear!" I'm sympathetic, because I would like to see the evil empire fall as well, (and it will because of the demographic collapse of the original European stock) but the "rise" of Russia is just cope. Russia (as always) is dependent on the West for tech, most especially for machine tools and CNC systems to build its arsenal. Russia will go no further than a few miles beyond the Ukraine border. It just doesn't have the resources or the man-power to move any further into Western Europe. Western hedonistic antinatalism and secularism has hollowed out the fruit of Russian demographics worse than the West. Even once fertile Muslim nations are succumbing to feminism and the corrupting influence of Western wealth and are barely reproducing. War is a game played by young healthy men. The US will increasingly wilt but I don't see another nation with the national IQ or healthy demographics that could possibly replace it as a World straddling leviathan.